Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

Food Price Outlook, 2026

This page summarizes the August 2026 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the July 2026 Consumer Price Index and the July 2026 Producer Price Index numbers.

See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.

Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)

The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, was unchanged from June 2026 to July 2026. It was up 3.4 percent from July 2025.

The CPI for all food increased 0.1 percent from June 2026 to July 2026. Food prices in July 2026 were 3.0 percent higher than in July 2025.

The level of food price inflation varied depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home and away from home:

The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and was 3.4 percent higher than in July 2025.
The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI was unchanged from June 2026 to July 2026 and 2.7 percent higher than in July 2025.

Rates of price change for the 15 food-at-home categories examined in the Food Price Outlook varied widely. Average prices decreased from June 2026 to July 2026 for eight of these categories, were unchanged for one category, and increased for six categories. Two categories experienced a large price swing, defined as a 1-month price increase or decrease of at least 1.0 percent. Prices rose by 1.1 percent for fresh fruits and fell by 1.6 percent for fresh vegetables.

Economic Research Service (ERS) August 2026 Forecast

In 2026, prices for all food are forecast to increase 3.0 percent, with a forecast interval of 2.4 to 3.5 percent. Food-at-home prices are forecast to increase 2.5 percent, with a forecast interval of 1.7 to 3.3 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are forecast to increase 3.6 percent, with a forecast interval of 3.2 to 3.9 percent.

In 2027, prices for all food are forecast to increase 2.4 percent, with a forecast interval of -3.0 to 8.1 percent. Food-at-home prices are forecast to increase 2.1 percent, with a forecast interval of -5.7 to 10.5 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are forecast to increase 2.7 percent, with a forecast interval of 0.0 to 5.5 percent.

The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook does not forecast the 12-month year-over-year change from the month of the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide forecast intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid point” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent forecast interval—based on past data the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower bound” and “Upper bound” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.

Recent Historical Overview

Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.

In 2020, food prices increased 3.4 percent, including prices for food at home (3.5-percent increase) and food away from home (3.4-percent increase). This convergence in growth rates was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate.

In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) affected egg and poultry prices. The Russia-Ukraine war and economy-wide inflationary pressures, such as high energy costs, also contributed to food price inflation. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent. Food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent.

In 2023, food price growth slowed as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent. Food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent.

Food prices rose by 2.3 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, slower than they had increased during 2020−23. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, lower than their historical average pace of growth (2.6 percent per year). Food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, still faster than their historical average (3.5 percent per year).

CPI Forecast Changes This Month

In 2026, food-away-from-home prices are forecast to rise 3.6 percent, faster than their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (3.5 percent). Food-at-home prices are forecast to rise 2.5 percent, slower than their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (2.6 percent).

In 2026, among the 15 food-at-home categories examined in the Food Price Outlook, prices for 7 categories are forecast to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate of growth. These include beef and veal, fish and seafood, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages. Prices for four other food-at-home categories are forecast to grow slower than their 20-year historical average rate of growth. These include pork, other meats, poultry, and other foods. Prices for cereal and bakery products are forecast to increase at their 20-year historical average rate of growth. Prices for dairy products are forecast to remain unchanged. Prices for eggs and fats and oils are forecast to decline in 2026 compared to 2025.

Beef and veal prices increased by 0.2 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 9.4 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. Based on the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook reports, U.S. federally inspected beef production declined almost 5 percent in July 2026 which supported wholesale beef prices at or above record levels for that time of year. Further, tight cattle supplies are expected to lead to lower year-over-year beef production in the second half of 2026. Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.0 to 12.6 percent.

Pork prices fell 0.6 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 0.5 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. Pork prices are forecast to increase 0.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -1.0 to 2.7 percent.

Poultry prices fell 0.5 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 0.5 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. Poultry prices are forecast to increase 0.5 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -0.8 to 2.0 percent.

Retail egg prices decreased 0.4 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 25.7 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. An ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022 has caused egg prices to increase by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. Retail egg prices increased 32.2 percent in 2022, 1.4 percent in 2023, 8.5 percent in 2024, and 21.9 percent in 2025. However, USDA is projecting an increase in egg production in 2026 over 2025. There were fewer new detections of HPAI during the first quarter of calendar year 2026 than there were during the first quarter of calendar year 2025. Moreover, as discussed in April’s ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, the availability of replacement pullets has been sufficient in 2026 to cover both regular flock turnover and unpredictable HPAI-related losses. Egg prices are forecast to decrease 30.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -35.3 to -25.3 percent.

Retail fresh fruit prices increased by 1.1 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 4.9 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. Prices for fresh fruits are forecast to increase 2.9 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 1.4 to 4.4 percent.

Retail fresh vegetable prices decreased by 1.6 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 6.3 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. U.S. consumers purchase a mix of fresh vegetables, and rates of food price inflation have varied by type of product. Retail prices in July 2026 were 12.8 percent higher for fresh tomatoes, 7.5 percent higher for fresh lettuce, and 3.4 percent higher for fresh potatoes compared with retail prices in July 2025. Overall, prices for fresh vegetables at retail stores are forecast to increase 5.9 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 4.0 to 8.0 percent.

Prices for sugar and sweets increased by 0.1 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 7.4 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. Prices have increased primarily for candy and chewing gum, a subcomponent of the CPI for sugars and sweets that includes most types of chocolate candy. Prices for sugar and sweets are forecast to increase by 7.1 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 6.0 to 8.2 percent.

Nonalcoholic beverage prices increased by 0.7 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 4.1 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. Prices increased at a faster rate in 2025 than their 20-year historical rate of change due primarily to higher prices for beverage materials including coffee and tea (a subcomponent of the CPI for nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials). Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are forecast to increase by 4.3 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 3.3 to 5.3 percent.

Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)

A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.

The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.

ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.

PPI Forecast Changes This Month

Farm-level cattle prices decreased 2.6 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 4.8 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. A cyclical contraction of the cattle herd has resulted in tight cattle supplies and driven farm-level cattle prices higher. Farm-level cattle prices are forecast to increase by 9.9 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 5.3 to 15.3 percent. Wholesale beef prices decreased 4.1 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 7.8 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. Wholesale beef prices are forecast to increase by 9.4 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 2.4 percent to 17.9 percent.

Prices for farm-level eggs increased 163.1 percent in 2022, decreased 28.3 percent in 2023, increased 43.1 percent in 2024, and increased 31.6 percent in 2025, primarily due to the spread of HPAI and reductions in egg production. However, U.S. egg production is recovering. Farm-level egg prices rose 27.3 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 79.0 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. Farm-level egg prices are forecast to decrease by 82.1 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -85.5 percent to -75.2 percent.

Prices for farm-level milk decreased 3.8 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 2.4 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. Prices for farm-level milk are forecast to decrease 6.3 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -13.3 percent to 2.5 percent.

Prices for farm-level fruits decreased 1.4 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 5.0 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. ERS forecasts that farm-level fruit prices will decrease by 3.7 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -8.3 percent to 1.3 percent.

Prices for farm-level vegetables were 5.9 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025, 48.0 percent higher in February 2026 than in February 2025, 49.0 percent higher in March 2026 than in March 2025, 56.3 percent higher in April 2026 than in April 2025, 70.2 percent higher in May 2026 than in May 2025, and 59.2 percent higher in June 2026 than in June 2025. However, after falling 29.4 percent from June 2026 to July 2026, farm-level fresh vegetable prices were 19.1 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. Despite this recent decrease in farm-level vegetable prices, ERS forecasts that farm-level vegetable prices will increase 17.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.6 percent to 30.9 percent.

Prices for farm-level wheat increased 9.3 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 25.5 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. Farm-level wheat prices have increased in recent months with a large projected decline in U.S. wheat output, as reported in the June 2026 Wheat Outlook report. In 2026, farm-level wheat prices are forecast to increase 17.1 percent, with a forecast interval of 7.9 to 28.4 percent.

For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see ERS outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.