Each year, USDA makes 10-year economic projections for the food and agriculture sector. The projections reflect a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic developments and farm policies, and cover major agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the U.S. farm sector, such as farm income and food prices. One key use of the projections is as a "starting point" from which to analyze the impacts of potential policy changes on U.S. agriculture.
Highlights
Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to the supply-and-demand conditions underlying record high prices for many farm commodities in recent years. In response, global agricultural production of most major crops increases in 2012. Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to fall in 2012 and 2013 in response to reduced producer returns over much of the past several years. Meat production then increases in response to improved returns. Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect a return to steady world economic growth and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices. Thus, following near-term reductions from record levels reached in 2011, the values of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise over the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food price increases average less than the overall rate of inflation in 2013-21, largely reflecting livestock production increases that limit consumer meat price increases.
Historic Reports
The Economic Research Service has the lead role in preparing USDA's Agricultural Projections report. For information on previous long-term projections, see the Current and Previous Baseline Projections page in the ERS Baseline Briefing Room.
Report
