What the World
Economic Crisis Means for Global Agricultural Trade (August
2009) evaluates the potential impacts of the 2008-2009 world crisis
on international agricultural trade. The most pronounced feature of
the current crisis is the sharp fall in agricultural trade, which
is likely to fall between 20 and 30 percent in value between 2008
and 2009. This report provides insight into how the crisis is
affecting both the commodity composition and the country
composition of agricultural trade.
The Transmission of
Exchange Rate Changes to Agricultural Prices (July 2009)
provides empirical evidence that price and exchange rate
transmission for agricultural products is low in most developing
economies, partly because of trade policies but also because of
inadequate infrastructure and other market deficiencies. Movements
in countries' exchange rates can substantially change the prices of
goods faced by producers and consumers and thereby affect
incentives to produce, consume, and trade goods. Exchange rate
changes, however, might not be completely transmitted (passed
through) to domestic prices.
World Economic Crisis: What It Means for U.S. Agriculture
(March 2009) evaluates the causes and consequences for U.S.
agriculture of the global economic crisis. Weakening of global
demand results in lower U.S. agricultural exports and lower
agricultural commodity prices, and puts downward pressure on
agricultural real estate values.
Trade and Development
When Exports Lack Diversification: A Case Study from Malawi
(July 2009) presents an analysis of the link between trade and
Malawi's economic development. Malawi, a country that earns
most of its foreign exchange from tobacco, is a case study of
export concentration and heavy exposure to volatility. The results
suggest that the decline in Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP)
when tobacco exports are falling is almost three times greater than
the increase in GDP when exports are rising. Simulations indicate
that variability in tobacco exports leads to slower economic growth
because GDP falls by a relatively large amount in response to a
given decrease in exports, while recovering little during an
upswing in exports. Gains in tobacco yield and improvements in
marketing efficiency, however, can help buffer Malawi's GDP from
variability in export revenues.
Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S.
Agricultural Exports (October 2008) estimates the real
trade-weighted exchange rate and trade partner income effects on
U.S. agricultural exports. For 1970-2006, a 1-percent annual
increase in trade partners' income is found to increase total
agricultural exports by about 0.75 percent, while a 1-percent
appreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to trade partner
trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by
about 0.5 percent. While these effects carry over to 12 commodity
subcategories, they are conditioned by differences between bulk and
high value commodities, and differences in the export demand from
high- and low-income countries.
Projections to 2021 (February 2012). The Macroeconomic
Assumptions chapter provides the projections underlying the USDA
baseline. Movements in real (adjusted for inflation) exchange rates
and growth in income influence the long-term trade outlook.
U.S. Trade Growth: A New Beginning or a Repeat of
the Past? (September 2007) evaluates how global economic growth
patterns and domestic macroeconomic conditions have influenced
recent trends in U.S. agricultural trade. Emerging market growth, a
weaker dollar, and the potential for slower domestic consumption
growth suggest a continuation of robust export growth and
moderating demand for imports. For the full report, see Global Growth,
Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade (September
Appreciation Could Boost U.S. Agricultural Exports (August
2007) reports that China's undervalued exchange rate keeps prices
of most U.S. food and agricultural products too high to be
competitive in China. Appreciation of the Chinese currency will
increase the purchasing power of Chinese consumers on world markets
and increase China's demand for imported commodities.
Weaker Dollar Strengthens U.S. Agriculture
(February 2007) provides an overview of the impact of the current
depreciation of the U.S. dollar. The depreciating dollar combined
with strong economic growth in developing countries has increased
the competitive advantage of U.S. agriculture and stimulated export
demand for U.S. agricultural products. However, fixed currencies,
trade policies, and imperfect markets can reduce the effects of
Canada: A Macroeconomic Study of the United
States' Most Important Trade Partner (September 2006) reports
that Canada is a large exporter to the United States of critical
raw materials-including natural gas, petroleum, and wood
products-and a substantial importer of finished industrial and
consumer goods. Agricultural trade between the two countries
continues to grow in importance, reflecting trade liberalization
and greater integration of agricultural markets.
New Directions in China's Agricultural Lending
(January 2006) reports that China doubled the balance of loans to
farmers between 2001 and 2005. Rural credit cooperatives and banks
are being commercialized, but rural lending is still influenced by
China: A Study of Dynamic Growth (October
2004) assesses China's rapid economic growth since 1978, which has
been driven by high rates of investment, gains in productivity, and
liberalized foreign trade and investment. China's growth is likely
to continue, but the Chinese economy faces some potentially
unsustainable pressures, including possible currency appreciation,
rising rural-urban inequality, unemployment, banking reforms, and
an unusual combination of inflationary and deflationary
International Settlements is an international organization that
fosters cooperation among central banks and other agencies in
pursuit of monetary and financial stability.
Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization, Statistical Databases
(FAOSTAT) provide major international statistics on
agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, including agricultural trade,
production, and food balance-sheet data.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers access
to a search engine of IMF
publications. This is a valuable source of information on
international macroeconomic issues.
United Nations, Project Link provides access to
Project Link papers and forecasts. Project Link is a cooperative,
nongovernmental, international research activity that integrates
independently developed national econometric models into a global
Bank, World Development Reports offer information on the
economic, social, and environmental state of the world.
Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Board, Economic Research and
Data provides access to Fed research.
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research and
Data accesses research at the Kansas City Fed and a large
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic
Research accesses a large set of macroeconomic data links and
research at the St. Louis Fed.
U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis accesses a large body of
U.S. national income accounting data.
U.S. Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics provides access to a wide
range of statistics on the U.S. consumer price index, employment,
productivity, and import and export unit values.
Executive Office of the President, Council of
Economic Advisers provides the President with objective
economic analysis and advice on the development and implementation
of a wide range of domestic and international economic policy
Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
provides access to energy and energy-related statistics for the
United States and the world.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau,
International Database offers direct access to the Census
Bureau's population database.
International Trade Commission is a quasi-judicial federal
agency that provides trade expertise to both the legislative and
executive branches of government, determines the impact of imports
on U.S. industries, and directs actions against certain unfair
trade practices, such as patent, trademark, and copyright
USDA, National Agricultural Library, National
Agricultural Library Digital Repository (NALDR) offers online
browsing of historical ERS Agricultural Economic Reports and
Agriculture Information Bulletins.
University of Maryland, INFORUM, EconData
provides access to a large body of published macroeconomic
British Columbia, Pacific Exchange Rate Service provides access
to current and historic daily exchange rates through an online
database retrieval and plotting system.