How USDA Forecasts Retail Food Price Inflation

by Annemarie Kuhns, Richard Volpe, Ephraim Leibtag, and Ed Roeger

In recent years, ERS has used a revised methodology for forecasting food price inflation, which captures price impacts at various stages of the food supply system and results in improved precision of the forecasts.

Keywords: Food Price Outlook, food prices, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), forecasts, vertical price transmission model, autoregressive moving average approach, error correction model, autoregressive distributed lag, univariate moving average approach

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