Food Security Assessment, 2010-20
by
Shahla Shapouri,
Stacey Rosen, May Peters, Felix Baquedano, and Summer Allen
Outlook No. (GFA-21) 64 pp, July 2010
Indicators of food security point to improvement between 2009
and 2010 for the 70 countries covered in this report. The number of
food-insecure people is estimated to decrease from about 953
million in 2009 to 882 million in 2010. Food-insecure people are
defined as those consuming less than the nutritional target of
2,100 calories per day per person.
Any increase or decrease highlights the fact that consumption
for large portions of the populations in lower income countries is
clustered around the nutritional target. This implies that even a
brief economic slowdown or food production shock can result in
millions of additional people being subjected to food insecurity.
Conversely, a slight improvement in economic conditions can propel
people past the nutritional target.
What Is the Issue?
The 2010 results are based on the economic recovery assumptions
by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is cautiously
optimistic, but admits that there is a downside risk of an economic
retreat. Among key factors influencing economic assumptions is the
unknown issue of capital flows. According to the IMF, capital
inflows will remain volatile because the current global economic
rebound is mainly driven by major fiscal stimulus in support of
credit markets, the impacts of which could be eroded before the end
of 2010. In Food Security Assessment, 2010- 20, ERS researchers
estimate and project the number of food-insecure people regionally
and in each of the 70 developing countries for 2010-2020.
What Did the Study Find?
Food security in 70 developing countries is estimated to have
improved between 2009 and 2010, due in part to economic recovery in
many of these countries. The number of food-insecure people in the
developing countries analyzed by ERS researchers is estimated to
decrease 7.5 percent from 2009 to 882 million in 2010. The number
of food-insecure people at the aggregate level will not improve
much over the next decade, declining by 1 percent from 2010 to
2020. While there will be notable improvements in Asia and Latin
America, the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to
deteriorate after 2010.
Despite the unfavorable long-term projections, SSA's food
security situation improved between 2009 and 2010 following
stronger economic growth and a continuation of the recent upward
trend in food production. The number of food-insecure people in the
region is estimated at 390 million in 2010, a near 12-percent
decline from 2009. The distribution gap-the amount of food needed
to raise consumption in each income group to meet the nutritional
target of 2,100 calories per person per day-also declined, albeit
negligibly. Despite the improvement, nearly half of the region's
population remains foodinsecure. In addition, while accounting for
only one-quarter of the population of the 70 countries included in
this study, the region is estimated to account for 44 percent of
the food-insecure people.
As the global economy slowly recovers from the worldwide
recession, Asia will continue to make impressive gains in improving
food security as the projected number of food-insecure people is
projected to decline from 433 million in 2010 to 320 million in
2020. In absolute terms, the number of food insecure in Asia is
large; however, in relative terms Asia is doing better than SSA. In
2010, Asia will account for nearly 64 percent of the population of
the 70 developing countries included in this report, but will
account for barely half of the estimated 882 million total
food-insecure people.
By 2020, the number of food-insecure people in SSA is projected
to exceed 500 million out of a total population of roughly 1
billion. In other words, without any significant increase in
investment or change in historical trends of major indicators, more
than half of the region's population will consume less than the
nutritional target. The region's food security position will also
deteriorate relative to the other regions included in this report.
In 2020, the region will account for only 27 percent of the
population of the 70 countries, but it will have about a 59-percent
share of the total number of food-insecure people.
The long-term projections are made assuming continuation of
current trends in several key factors affecting long-term food
security-agricultural production, income, foreign exchange
availability, and population growth. The question is how changes in
these variables would affect the results. To do this, ERS developed
two scenarios. The first scenario doubles capital inflows by 2020
to examine the impacts of improved food import capacity in all
study countries. The food security baseline projections assume a
constant capital inflow during the projection period.
The second scenario analyzes the effect of targeting the most
vulnerable countries with the goal of improving their food
production performance. The scenario stems from concerns raised in
different forums among governments and donors that without
significant improvements in production, vulnerability to shocks
such as the global food price crisis of 2008 could continue. To
examine the impact on food security of increased agricultural
production in low-income countries, the second scenario couples the
increase in capital flows from the first scenario with a 50-percent
increase in projected grain yields in 2020. The countries selected
for this scenario are the 37 in the SSA region and 4 in Central
America and the Caribbean. (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and
Haiti were selected because they have the highest share of rural
population relative to other countries in the region.)
In the first scenario, when capital inflows of the 70 countries
are doubled in 2020, the number of food-insecure people is
projected to decline 11 percent relative to the 2020 food security
baseline projections. Scenario results indicate improvement in all
regions. In Asia, the number of food-insecure people declines by 14
percent, in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) by 31 percent, and in
SSA by 8 percent. As expected, the regions that benefit under this
scenario are those that are highly import-dependent (LAC) and those
where external capital inflows (private and foreign assistance) are
high relative to their export earnings (Asia).
The results under the second scenario show a significant
improvement in food security in SSA. The number of foodinsecure
people falls by 67 percent (from 513 million in 2020 in the food
security baseline to 168 million in this scenario). In the selected
LAC countries, the number of food-insecure people falls to less
than 10 percent in all countries except for Haiti.
How Was the Study
Conducted?
All historical and projected data are updated relative to the
Food Security Assessment, 2008-09 report. Food production estimates
for 2009 are based on data from the United Nations' Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) as of February 2010. Historical
production data are from FAO and food aid data are from the World
Food Programme (WFP). Financial and macroeconomic data are based on
the latest World Bank data, as of February 2010. Projected
macroeconomic variables either are based on ERS-calculated growth
rates for the 1990s through the late 2000s or are IMF and World
Bank projections. Projections of food availability include food
aid, with the assumption that each country will receive the 2006-08
average level of food aid throughout the next decade.