Publications

Agricultural Outlook

December 1998

Economics Editor: Dennis A. Shields, dshields@ERS.USDA.gov

This issue was published in December 1998 by the Market and Trade Economics Division.

Agricultural Outlook is published 10 times per year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. To order Agricultural Outlook, please visit the ERS-NASS Sales Desk. The contents section at the bottom of this page links to each article in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

In This Issue...

LARGE SUPPLIES, SLUGGISH EXPORT PROCESS PRESSURE CORN PRICES -- U.S. corn farmers, now wrapping up the second-largest harvest in history, face weak prices in 1998/99. The large increase in corn supply is expected to outstrip the rise in demand, keeping downward pressure on prices. Although domestic use of corn will rise to a new record, only a small recovery in U.S. exports is likely. Pete Riley (202) 694-5308; pariley@ERS.USDA.gov

THE WESTERN RAIL CRISIS: ONE YEAR LATER -- Rail service in the western U.S. appears to have improved substantially following a series of service failures which snarled traffic beginning in the summer of 1997. Recent improvements should allow carriers to handle the large 1998 grain and soybean harvest. But this year the grain business of the western railroads is being hurt by reduced export demand in Pacific Northwest ports, the resutl of economic problems abroad. William J. Brennan (202) 690-4440; William_J_Brennan@usda.gov

U.S. PEANUT CONSUMPTION REBOUNDS -- Before the recent rebound in domestic food use of U.S.-grown peanuts, demand had weakened in the early 1990's. Stagnant commercial peanut use, rapidly falling government purchases, and rapidly rising volumes of imported peanuts and products had combined to reduce demand. But industry promotion efforts launched in 1996 have paid off. Scott Sanford, Farm Service Agency (202) 720-3392; scott_sanford@wdc.fsa.usda.gov

INDONESIA'S CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE -- Triggered by a regional financial crisis that began in Thailand in July 1997, Indonesia's sudden economic collapse in 1997-98 had several contributing factors, including a rapid increase in short-term, private debt and a weakly regulated banking system. The economic chaos has cut U.S. agricultural exports to Indonesia by more than half. Gary Vocke (202) 694-5241; gvocke@ERS.USDA.gov

URUGUAY ROUND AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE: THE RECORD TO DATE -- During the 3 years since initial implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA), the record is mixed. The Uruguay Round's overall impact on agricultural trade can be considered positive in moving toward several key goals, including reduction of agricultural export subsidies, new rules for agricultural import policy, and disciplines for sanitary and phytosanitary trade measures. However, significant agricultural tariff reductions must await a future round of negotiations. Mary Anne Normile (202) 694-5162; mnormile@ERS.USDA.gov

THE 1997 TAX LAW: NEW INCENTIVES FOR FARMERS TO INVEST FOR RETIREMENT -- Recent changes under the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 offer new choices and opportunities for retirement planning at a time when farmers have a number of incentives for diversifying total assets beyond the farm. The tax law changes for Individual Retirement Accounts present new tax benefits, while lower capital gains tax rates reinforce farmers' traditional inclination to reinvest in farm assets to provide income at retirement. James Monke (202) 694-5358; jmonke@ERS.USDA.gov

This publication is in Adobe Acrobat Reader 4.0 PDF format. You can download and get help using the Adobe Acrobat Reader to view and print this document. Text-only versions of Agricultural Outlook are also available, immediately after publication clearance.

Contents; 101 kb.

In This Issue...; 19 kb.

Briefs; 33 kb.