Overview
The agricultural baseline database provides longrun, 10-year projections from USDA's annual long-term projections report, which is published in February each year. The database covers projections for major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton) and livestock (beef, pork, poultry and eggs, and dairy) starting with the February 2000 report.
When using the database, please note the following:
- The database covers projections for major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton), and livestock (beef, pork, poultry and eggs, and dairy).
- Additional projections for other data, such as macroeconomic and farm policy assumptions, specialty crops, farm income, food prices, and agricultural trade, are available in spreadsheets.
- The data in the database have been published in annual USDA long-term projections since 2000. Each year's projections include 2 years of history and 10 years of projections. The most recent projections from February 2011 cover the period 2009/10 to 2020/21.
Data
- Search the database interactively—View, graph, and/or download database variables for major field crops and livestock. Interactive long-term projections data can be saved as a comma delimited output file, tab delimited output file, or an HTML output file.
Questions and Answers
- Question: What time period does the long-term projections report cover?
Answer: The report contains 2 years of history and 10 years of projections. For example, data from the February 2010 USDA projections report include estimated historical observations and short-term projections for 2008 and 2009 from the November 2009 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, followed by 10 years of long-term projections for 2010 through 2019.
- Question: What assumptions underlie the long-term projections?
Answer: The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. Normal weather is assumed. Further, the projections assume that there are no shocks to other factors affecting global agricultural supply and demand. Current agricultural legislation is assumed to remain in effect throughout the projections.
Related Data Products
The most recent projections may be accessed electronically through the USDA Long-Term Agricultural Projections Report in Adobe PDF or Microsoft Word.
Longrun projections data in Previous Long-Term Projections Reports are also available.
Additional long-term projections information for other data are available in Excel spreadsheets. These include data for macroeconomic and farm policy assumptions, as well as projections for specialty crops, farm income, food prices, and global agricultural trade.
International Long-Term Projections for major crops for selected countries are available in Excel spreadsheets.
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