ERS Charts of Note
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Wednesday, September 25, 2024
In 2022, the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Eating and Health Module captured for the first time nationally representative data about the prevalence and frequency of U.S. residents who report shopping for groceries online. This data, collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American Time Use Survey, revealed that about 1 in 5 shoppers (19.3 percent) purchased groceries online at least once in the previous 30 days from the time of the survey. Notably, ERS researchers performed a regression analysis to look at differences in the likelihood of online grocery shopping within the past month among a wide variety of characteristics, including race/ethnicity, gender, education level, households with/without children, and eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The largest disparity among any of these characteristics was the difference in an individual’s education level—from 9 percent for those with less than a high school diploma/GED to 26 percent for those with more than a bachelor’s degree. In other words, compared with people with less than a high school diploma or GED, those with more than a bachelor’s degree were 17 percentage points more likely to buy groceries online. These data are calculated from the regression analysis in the ERS report Who Shops For Groceries Online?, published in September 2024.
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
The United States has a total land area of 2.26 billion acres. In 2017, the latest year for which complete data are available, about 29 percent was grassland pasture and range, 28 percent was forest-use land, and 17 percent of the land area was cropland. Urban areas accounted for 3 percent of U.S. land, and a variety of special uses accounted for 14 percent. Special-use land, most of which is devoted to rural parks and wilderness areas, is largely concentrated in Alaska and other States in the western half of the United States, where there are larger amounts of public lands. Miscellaneous other uses made up the remaining 9 percent. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) maintains an inventory of all major uses of public and private land in the 50 States, which it updates every five years using data from various sources. This chart was drawn from the ERS’s most recent report Major Uses of Land in the United States, 2017, released in September 2024.
Monday, September 23, 2024
The number of farms with a Hispanic operator is about 84,000, a decline of about 2,800 farms since the last Census of Agriculture in 2017. A farm is defined as Hispanic-operated if at least one producer associated with it identifies as Spanish, Hispanic or Latino. Hispanic operators produced agricultural products on 37 million acres in 2022, which represents 4.2 percent of all U.S. land in farms. The total land in farms with Hispanic operators increased by 32 percent from 2002 to 2022. However, the average size for these farms has remained relatively stable at 441 acres in 2022, which is similar to the average farm size of 463 acres for all U.S. farms. For more details from the 2022 Census of Agriculture, see the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Census of Agriculture website. For more information on Hispanic farmers, see USDA, Economic Research Service’s publication An Overview of Farms Operated by Socially Disadvantaged, Women, and Limited Resource Farmers and Ranchers in the United States, February 2024.
Thursday, September 19, 2024
In 2023, full- and limited-service restaurants collectively accounted for more than two-thirds of U.S. food-away-from-home (FAFH) spending. Full-service establishments typically provide food services to customers who order and are served while seated and pay after eating, while in limited-service restaurants customers generally order and pay before eating and meals may be consumed on premises, taken out, or delivered to a specific location. Other FAFH outlets— hotels, schools, and drinking establishments, among others—accounted for the nearly remaining third of spending in 2023. In 1997, full-service restaurants received the largest share of food-away-from-home spending at 35.9 percent. However, that share began to decrease during the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009) and then sharply declined in early 2020 during the brief recession at the start of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Conversely, limited-service restaurant spending reached 34.6 percent in 2010, peaked at 37.6 percent in 2020, and received the largest share of food-away-from-home spending through 2023. The data for this chart come from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series.
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
The bulk of U.S. imports fall into categories of consumer goods, capital goods, and industrial supplies. However, agricultural products account for an increasing share of total U.S. imports. From fiscal years (FY) 2004 to 2023, the value of U.S. imports of agricultural products rose an average 3.7 percent annually, adjusting for inflation, exceeding the overall rate of increase for total U.S. imports. Led by increases in processed food and beverages, horticultural products, and livestock products, agricultural imports are forecast to reach $204 billion in FY 2024 and a record $212 billion in FY 2025. Moreover, in 2023, agricultural imports accounted for 6.3 percent of the total value, up from 4.3 percent in 2004. U.S. consumers’ growing appetites for high-valued imported goods such as fresh fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and processed grain products have helped drive the rapid expansion of agricultural imports. Imported goods often include products that can’t easily be sourced in the United States, such as tropical products, off-season produce, or protected designated-origin products like Parmigiano Reggiano and Champagne. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2024 published by USDA’s Economic Research Service.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
From 1948 to 2021, U.S. agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of 1.46 percent. The largest contributor to this growth came from improvement in total factor productivity, which measures changes in the efficiency with which inputs are transformed into outputs. The major drivers of such productivity growth include innovations in animal and crop genetics, improvements in operation management, and changing farm sector structure. Over seven decades, total factor productivity added an annual average of 1.49 percentage points to the output growth rate. Intermediate inputs, such as agricultural chemicals, energy, purchased services, feed, and seed, added 0.46 percentage point. The positive contributions of intermediate inputs and total factor productivity were partially offset by reductions in capital (made up mostly of land) and labor inputs. The contribution to the output growth rate of labor use decline was -0.42 percentage point, and that of capital inputs (including land) reduction was -0.07 percentage point, accounting for a combined decrease of 0.49 percentage point. That decrease slightly exceeded the positive contribution from intermediate inputs, meaning fewer inputs were used during the period. As a result, farmers and ranchers are producing more with fewer inputs. For more on U.S. agricultural productivity trends, see the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Agricultural Research and Productivity topic page and the ERS Agricultural Productivity in the U.S. data product. This chart appears in the ERS technical bulletin Measurement of Output, Inputs, and Total Factor Productivity in U.S. Agricultural Productivity Accounts, published in August 2024.
Monday, September 16, 2024
Camelids—members of the animal family that includes camels, alpacas, and llamas—are hardy and versatile livestock that contribute to global meat, milk, and fiber production. These specialized herbivores can survive in diverse and even arid terrain while providing services such as transportation and companionship or guarding flocks of sheep, goats, hens, and other livestock. Because of the camelids’ importance to worldwide food security and economic growth, the United Nations declared 2024 the International Year of Camelids. Despite their global popularity, the U.S. herd size of the primary camelids in production, llamas and alpacas, has been shrinking since 2007. Data from the USDA Censuses of Agriculture show the national combined herd of llamas and alpacas decreased by nearly half from 2007 to 2022, with llama inventories alone decreasing 76 percent. As of the 2022 Census of Agriculture, about 99,500 head of alpacas were reported nationally along with about 29,700 head of llamas. The number of farms with llamas and alpacas also decreased from 2012 to 2022. For more Census of Agriculture data, see the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Census of Agriculture page. Information about Federal commodity programs for livestock, including alpacas and llamas, can be found in the USDA, Economic Research Service topic page, Animal Policy & Regulatory Issues.
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Across the United States, 8 percent of farms and ranches (153,101 out of 1.9 million) had renewable energy systems in 2022, according to data from the 2022 Census of Agriculture. This was an increase from 7 percent of farms and ranches reporting renewables in the 2017 Census of Agriculture. Renewable energy systems include everything from small-scale systems, such as rooftop solar and small hydro systems, to large-scale systems, such as solar and wind farms, as well as methane digesters, and geothermal systems. Nationally, 11 percent of all farms and ranches in the United States with renewables are in California. Texas is second with 10 percent of the U.S. total, which are located on 6 percent of the farms and ranches in Texas. States in the Southeast have the lowest share of farms and ranches with renewable energy systems, many with less than 1 percent of the U.S. total. States where more than 20 percent of farms and ranches in the State had renewable systems include Hawaii (34 percent), California (26 percent), Massachusetts, and Vermont (both 23 percent). For more Census of Agriculture data, see the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s 2022 Census of Agriculture page.
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Food-insecure households sometimes have difficulty providing enough food for all their members because of a lack of resources. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) monitors the extent of food insecurity in U.S. households at the national and State levels through an annual U.S. Census Bureau survey. State-level estimates are obtained by averaging 3 years of data to generate a larger sample size in each State. This provides more precise estimates and an improved ability to detect differences across States. The estimated prevalence rates of food insecurity during 2021–23 ranged from 7.4 percent in New Hampshire to 18.9 percent in Arkansas. The estimated national 3-year average for all States was 12.2 percent. The prevalence of food insecurity was statistically significantly higher than the national average in 7 States (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Texas). It was statistically significantly lower than the national average in 17 States (California, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, North Dakota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin), as well as Washington, DC. In the remaining 26 States, differences from the national average were not statistically significant. An interactive food insecurity map can be found on the ERS Interactive Charts and Highlights topic page that allows users to view two measures of food insecurity across multiple years for each State. Users of that page can see State trends in food insecurity, how States compare with national food insecurity prevalence rates, and how States compare with one another. This map appears on the ERS Key Statistics & Graphics topic page.
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Southeast Asia is the third largest regional market for U.S. agricultural exports, behind North America and East Asia. In 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast Asia totaled about $12.9 billion, with soybean products, wheat, cotton, and distillers’ grains making up more than half. Soybeans and their products are the largest commodity group the United States exports to Southeast Asia. In 2023, U.S. soybeans and soybean meal, flour, oil, and seed exports totaled $3.8 billion. Wheat was the second largest U.S. agricultural export to Southeast Asia in 2023 at $1.3 billion. Cotton and distillers’ dried grains (referred to as DDGS) were the third and fourth largest exports, with 2023 exports valued at $1.1 billion and $0.8 billion, respectively. The value of U.S. skim milk powder exports to the region fell to $0.7 billion in 2023 after rising from $0.4 billion in 2018 to $1.1 billion in 2022, the fastest growing U.S. agricultural export to Southeast Asia at that time. U.S. exports of miscellaneous food preparations and poultry were valued at $0.5 billion and $0.3 billion in 2023. Lastly, U.S. flours, meals, and pellets of meat and meat offal exports were valued at $0.3 billion. Numerous other products, including animal feed preparations, frozen potatoes, beef, nuts, and fruits, accounted for $4.0 billion worth of exports. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report U.S. Agricultural Exports in Southeast Asia, published in August 2024, and has been updated with recent data.
Monday, September 9, 2024
Over time, the inputs used in producing the U.S. farm outputs have shifted from land (categorized as part of capital) and labor toward intermediate inputs, such as fertilizers, pesticides, energy, and purchased services. Meanwhile, the quality of agricultural inputs has improved in all three categories—labor, capital (land, as well as machinery and farm buildings), and intermediate inputs. For example, fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium have undergone significant changes in quality over time, making them more effective. Pesticides also have improved potency, persistence, toxicity, and absorption rates. Further, workers in the agricultural labor pool now have attained higher education levels. As for capital, technological developments have allowed farm operators to replace obsolete machinery with more efficient capital assets. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers tracking these improvements in input quality have found that labor quality increases contributed 0.11 to the 1.46-percent average annual output growth rate between 1948 and 2021 (compared with the reduction in labor quantity contribution of -0.42 percent). Quality improvements in capital and intermediate inputs contributed 0.04 percentage points each toward the output growth. While capital inputs show reductions in quantity, mostly from the decline in land use, the use of intermediate inputs has increased. Advancements in input quality and shifts away from inputs like labor and land to intermediate inputs mostly offset the decline in total input use, leaving total input with a -0.03 percent decrease per year during the study period. The major factor that allows the sector to produce greater output despite fewer inputs than in the past is the gain in total factor productivity (TFP), advanced by technical change in genetic improvement in livestock and crops, as well as efficiency change through improved farm management and practices. This chart appears in the ERS technical bulletin Measurement of Output, Inputs, and Total Factor Productivity in U.S. Agricultural Productivity Accounts, published in August 2024.
Thursday, September 5, 2024
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, will decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6 percent) to $154.1 billion in 2024. This would come after an NCFI decrease of $52.9 billion (23.7 percent) in 2023 from an all-time high of $223.3 billion in 2022. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $10.2 billion (6.8 percent) to $140.0 billion in 2024. This reduction follows a drop of $43.3 billion (22.4 percent) in NFI in 2023 from an all-time high of $193.5 billion in 2022 (after adjusting for inflation). Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Despite these declines, if forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would stay above their respective 2004–23 averages in 2024. Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $23.3 billion (4.3 percent) to $516.5 billion in 2024, primarily because of lower crop receipts. However, a $16.2 billion (3.4 percent) reduction in production expenses is expected to moderate the overall decline. Find additional information and analysis on the ERS Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page, reflecting data released on September 5, 2024.
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
In 2023, 13.5 percent of U.S. households (18.0 million households) were food insecure at some time during the year, meaning they had difficulty providing enough food for all their members because of a lack of resources. The prevalence of food insecurity in 2023 was statistically significantly higher than the 12.8 percent recorded in 2022. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) monitors the food security status of households in the United States through an annual nationwide survey. Very low food security is a more severe form of food insecurity in which the food intake of some household members was reduced and normal eating patterns were disrupted sometime during the year. The 2023 prevalence of very low food security among households was 5.1 percent (6.8 million households), unchanged from the 5.1 percent in 2022. This chart appears on the ERS Key Statistics & Graphics page and in the ERS report Household Food Security in the United States in 2023, published September 4, 2024.
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
In 2024, an estimated 824.6 million people, equivalent to 19.0 percent of the population included in the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA), are projected to be unable to access the 2,100 calories per day considered necessary for a healthy and active lifestyle. This represents a decrease of 313 million people from the 2023 estimate for the 83 low- and middle-income countries covered in the food security assessment. However, food insecurity is projected to remain elevated in many countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where it is estimated to affect 29.3 percent of the region’s population. In 2024, average annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for income, is estimated at $2,483 in IFSA countries. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa it is estimated to be $1,387, the lowest of the five IFSA regions. Although food prices are projected to ease globally in 2024, domestic prices remain high in many Sub-Saharan African countries, making it difficult for consumers to access sufficient calories. While most countries will see a decrease in staple grain prices, countries relying heavily on imported rice (like many in West Africa) are projected to experience price increases following export restrictions implemented by India in July 2023. In addition to economic factors, military conflict and political instability are associated with high food insecurity rates in the region. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report International Food Security Assessment, 2024-34, released in August 2024.
Thursday, August 29, 2024
U.S. dairy farms vary widely in size, from small (fewer than 50 cows) to large (2,000 or more cows). While many factors can influence a dairy farm’s production cost per unit of milk, such as technology use, management, and input prices paid, farm size can also affect costs. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the cost of milk production by dairy herd size based on dairy-specific versions of the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), which are conducted every 5 to 6 years. Costs include operating expenditures, such as feed and veterinary care, and allocated overhead costs, such as buildings, equipment, labor, and land, some of which are economic opportunity costs. Based on the past 5 ARMS dairy surveys, the average total production cost per 100 pounds of milk sold has been consistently lower for dairy farms with larger herd sizes than for those with smaller herd sizes. In 2021, the average total cost per 100 pounds of milk sold was $42.70 for herds with fewer than 50 cows, while for farms with 2,000 or more cows, the cost was $19.14. Increased costs by year reflect the reporting of nominal, not inflation-adjusted costs. Lower per unit production costs for larger dairy farms are attributable at least partly to the ability to spread some expenses over greater output and to greater adoption of advanced technologies, management practices, and production systems. For more information, see the ERS report Structure, Costs, and Technology Used on U.S. Dairy Farms, published in July 2024.
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
In fiscal year (FY) 2023, USDA’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) served a monthly average of 42.1 million people in the 50 States and Washington, DC, representing 12.6 percent of the population. SNAP is the United States’ largest domestic nutrition assistance program, accounting for about two-thirds of USDA food and nutrition assistance spending in recent years. SNAP is available to most households with limited incomes and assets, subject to certain work and immigration status requirements. Participating households receive monthly benefits through an electronic benefit transfer card, which can be used like a debit card to buy food items at authorized retailers. SNAP participation varies across States, influenced by differences in the demographic characteristics of the population, program administration, and economic conditions. In FY 2023, the share of residents receiving SNAP benefits in each State ranged from as high as 23.1 percent in New Mexico to as low as 4.6 percent in Utah. In 34 States, the share was between 8 and 16 percent. This map appears in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Charting the Essentials, last updated in July 2024.
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
A quarter of all U.S. farm operations participated in USDA direct payment programs in 2022, meaning that they received at least some payment directly from USDA (no intermediaries involved). Data from the 2022 USDA Census of Agriculture show the share of operations that received some Federal payments (at a county level) were concentrated in the central United States. Conducted every 5 years by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the most recent census occurred during a year of historically high net farm income so commodity safety net programs—in place to make payments when prices or revenues are low—were not triggered for many commodities. Comparison with 2017 Census of Agriculture shows participation rates in Southwestern and Southern Great Plains counties, while not especially higher in 2022, were higher than those recorded in previous censuses. Meanwhile, participation in many Midwestern counties was lower than in previous censuses. Participation rates are based on receipt of direct payments and do not include crop insurance or loan program participation. Based on data from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product, total payments in 2022 were $16.47 billion, more than 14 percent higher after adjusting for inflation than the $14.4 billion recorded in 2017. More than 70 percent of all USDA direct payments disbursed in 2022 were from supplemental and ad hoc relief for wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, winter storms, and other eligible disasters. This Chart of Note is drawn from the NASS 2022 Census of Agriculture. For more information about the farm sector and USDA programs, see the ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product and the ERS Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast topic page.
Monday, August 26, 2024
Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) examined cover crop use by cow-calf operations and found that more than half of producers who planted cover crops reported harvesting at least some of them. Harvesting cover crops on cow-calf operations is more likely in the Mississippi Portal and Northern Crescent regions and less likely in the Heartland region. Cow-calf operations might plant cover crops to improve soil quality on their cropland and then use the growing crop to provide feed for their cattle either by grazing the growing cover crop or harvesting the cover crop as haylage or silage to feed cattle later. In 2018–20, USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) asked producers how many acres of cover crops they harvested for forage or other on-farm use and how many acres of cover crops were not harvested. Data from the 2017 Census of Agriculture showed that about 11 percent of cow-calf operations reported using cover crops, with the highest rates of cover crop use occurring in the Northern Crescent and Heartland regions (18 percent of operations in both regions). Information on cover crop practices on cattle operations can be found in the ERS report Cover Crops on Livestock Operations: Potential for Expansion in the United States, published in May 2024.
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Inventories of turkey eggs in incubators—an indicator of the number of market birds that will be marketable in about five months—fell to their lowest level since 1988 on June 1, 2024, with 22.8 million eggs. Placements of newly hatched birds (called “poults”) in facilities to be raised to slaughter weight were down in June by 18 percent year-over-year, with February 2024 the only month since 2005 with lower placements. Turkey eggs incubated in June and then placed in July typically grow out in time to be slaughtered as fresh Thanksgiving birds in November. Declining June egg inventories and July placements suggest that the availability of fresh turkeys at Thanksgiving will be lower this year. While July and August poult placements were higher than June, they were down 9 to 10 percent year-over-year. However, supplies of frozen turkeys at Thanksgiving may not be an issue. Inventories of whole frozen hen turkeys (8–16 pounds) were up 16 percent year-over-year as of June 30, 2024. The turkey industry has suffered losses because of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, but the recent losses in breeding flocks occurred after falling inventories of eggs in incubators were reported, suggesting that reducing egg incubation and poult placements were not the direct result of the avian flu, but may have been production decisions. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service June 2024 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook and has been updated with recent data.
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
U.S. imports of animal fats (edible tallow, inedible tallow, lard, and poultry fats), greases, and processed oils—including used cooking oil—skyrocketed to nearly 5.0 billion pounds in 2023 from 2.2 billion pounds in 2022. This surge in imports has been driven by rising domestic production of biomass-based diesel (fuels derived from animal fats and vegetable oils) to meet U.S. Federal and State policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These policies sparked new demand for animal fats, processed oils, and grease and have boosted imports, especially processed oil imports commonly known as used cooking oil (UCO). Processed oil imports doubled to 3 billion pounds from 2022 to 2023 as China emerged as the top supplier. U.S. tallow imports also have increased, largely on expanded sourcing from Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. With stronger tallow and processed oil imports, the share of animal fats, waste oils, and greases as a portion of total oil and fat-related used in biomass-based diesel production has increased to 36 percent from 31 percent in 2021, while vegetable oil’s share has declined. As biofuel use continues growing, this structural shift in biomass-based diesel production and import markets is expected to affect the domestic use and trade flows of animal fats and vegetable oils. This chart is drawn from a Special Article in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook: July 2024. See also this Chart of Note on biomass-based diesel production, published August 8, 2024.