Goal 1: Enhance International Competitiveness of American Agriculture
Key Outcome
ERS research and analytical activities are designed to provide policymakers and other decision makers with an enhanced understanding of economic issues affecting the U.S. food and agriculture sector’s international competitiveness, including factors related to market and nonmarket trade barriers.
Key Accomplishments
2006 – mid-2008 Increase in Commodity Prices. World market prices for major food commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have risen sharply to historic highs in the summer of 2008 to more than 60 percent above levels just two years ago. An ERS analysis, Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Increase in World Food Commodity Prices, ERS discusses the many factors that have contributed to the run-up in food commodity prices. Recent factors that have tightened world markets include increased global demand, adverse weather conditions in some major grain and oilseed producing areas, declining value of the U.S. dollar, rising energy prices, biofuel feedstock demand, increasing agricultural costs of production, growing foreign exchange holdings by major food importing countries, and policies adopted recently by some exporting and importing countries to mitigate their own food price inflation.
U.S. Agricultural Trade Expands. U.S. net agricultural trade surged to nearly $18 billion in 2007, a surplus not seen since ten years earlier. Agricultural trade generates employment, income, and purchasing power in both the farm and nonfarm sectors. Each farm export dollar earned stimulated another $1.65 in business activity in calendar year 2006 based on an ERS report, U.S. Agricultural Trade Boosts Overall Economy. The $71.0 billion of agricultural exports in 2006 produced an additional $117.2 billion in economic activity for a total economic output of $188.2 billion. Agricultural exports also generated 841,000 full-time civilian jobs, which include 482,000 jobs in the nonfarm sector. Farmers’ purchases of fuel, fertilizer, and other inputs to produce commodities for export spurred economic activity in the manufacturing, trade, and transportation sectors.
Trade Negotiations and Policy Analysis. ERS research on trade policy is focused on providing analysis that evaluates the impacts of changes in U.S. and other countries' agricultural trade policies. ERS research in support of WTO and bilateral negotiations has helped to inform and strengthen U.S. negotiating positions on agriculture. ERS has developed quantitative estimates of the impacts of market access and export subsidy liberalization proposals. Research on the impacts of the U.S-Korea Free Trade Agreement provided insights into the expected changes in trade resulting from freer trade between the two countries. In a recent article, "World Trade Organization and Globalization Help Facilitate Growth in Agricultural Trade", ERS examined the benefits and obligations of WTO membership. Despite strong critics of WTO, membership continues to grow as countries seek the benefits of expanding trade. In the WTO, member countries trade concessions to gain access to foreign markets, benefiting foreign producers and consumers in the aggregate.
China in 21st Century Agricultural Markets. ERS continues to maintain an active research program that investigates how policy and economic developments in China affect global agricultural markets. Recent research, China Currency Appreciation Could Boost U.S. Agricultural Exports, points to the fact that U.S. exports of soybeans and cotton to China have boomed in recent years, but the undervalued exchange rate for the Chinese yuan keeps prices of most other U.S. food and agricultural products too expensive vis á vis Chinese products. With an undervalued exchange rate, China’s prices are not high enough to attract imports of grains or most livestock products. In another article, "Who Will China Feed?", ERS economists examined the growing resource constraints and environmental costs facing China’s agricultural sector and a possible end to "easy" growth for Chinese agriculture.
Developing Country Consumer Patterns. Longrun consumer patterns are changing in middle-income developing countries. Globalization and income growth are resulting in increasing similarities worldwide in diets and food delivery mechanisms. ERS research, Convergence in Global Food Demand and Delivery, demonstrates that food-purchasing patterns and food delivery mechanisms of high-income countries are being increasingly copied by both upper middle-income countries (Mexico and Poland, for example) and lower middle-income countries (Brazil and China, for example). Middle-income countries are beginning to resemble high-income countries in their food purchasing patterns at both retail and food service outlets. Analyses of food expenditures across 47 countries indicate significant convergence in consumption patterns for total food, cereals, meats, seafood, dairy, sugar and confectionery, caffeinated beverages, and soft drinks.
Goal 2: Enhance the Competitiveness and Sustainability of Rural and Farm Economies
Key Outcome
ERS research and analytical activities are designed to enhance understanding by policymakers and other decision makers of economic issues affecting the U.S. food and agriculture sector’s competitiveness, including factors related to performance, structure, risk and uncertainty, and marketing.
Key Accomplishments
Market Analysis and Outlook. ERS, working closely with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and other USDA agencies, conducts market analysis and provides short- and long-term projections of U.S. and world agricultural production, consumption, and trade. The market and outlook program has enhanced the quality, transparency, and accessibility of data and analytical information. ERS continues to release regularly scheduled outlook and special focused market reports on grain, oilseed, livestock, dairy, poultry, aquaculture, sugar, rice, cotton, and fruit and vegetables.
Assessment of 2008 Farm Act Provisions. ERS has a key role in assessing the economic impacts of the 2008 Farm Act. After the 2002 Farm Act, ERS posted a "side-by-side" comparing the 1996 and 2002 Farm Acts that has been the most used web product ever produced by ERS. For the 2008 Farm Act, ERS produced a web-based side-by-side feature with improved functionality and with more in-depth and descriptive content. The side-by-side provides the basis for updating content on the ERS website to reflect new provisions. It provides the basis for comprehensive analysis of the economic impacts of the commodity, conservation and trade provisions.
Assessment of 2002 Farm Act Provisions. The 2002 Farm Act required USDA to implement marketing loans for the 2002-07 crops of dry peas, lentils, and small chickpeas. This provision led to expanded acreage for dry peas and lentils, crops analyzed in the ERS study Effects of Marketing Loans on U.S. Dry Peas and Lentils: Supply Response and World Trade. The analysis found that marketing loans played a role in expansion for dry peas in 2003-05 and for lentils in 2003. For dry peas and lentils, marketing loans contributed to acreage expansion in North Dakota and Montana. Simulation model results suggest that marketing loans had negligible impacts on world prices for dry peas and lentils in 2003-05. Impacts on U.S. exports were minor, increasing by about two percent in 2003.
Structural Change in Livestock Industries. U.S. livestock production has been shifting to larger operations that are more tightly coordinated through contracts with suppliers and buyers. Four ERS reports describe and analyze these developments: Characteristics and Production Costs of U.S. Hog Farms, 2004; The Changing Economics of U.S. Hog Production; Profits, Costs, the Changing Structure of Dairy Farming; and The Economic Organization of U.S. Broiler Production. The reports are part of a project that relies on farm-level surveys and that describes how production is organized, how that organization is changing, the driving forces behind change, and the impacts of change on productivity, prices, farm finances, and environmental performance. Larger operations, abetted in some cases by tighter coordination of production, have been able to realize lower costs and reduced input usage. However, large livestock operations also consolidate large quantities of manure in small geographic areas. The reports detail the types of manure management practices carried out by large operations, and show how practices are changing in response to policy interventions and greater public awareness of environmental risks associated with manure. Farm survey data on hog operations from 2004 reveal an industry characterized by wide variation in the types, sizes, and economic performance of operations. Once dominated by small, owner-operated crop-hog farms, hog ownership has become increasingly concentrated. The traditional approach of farrow-to-finish production, where all phases of production are performed on one operation, is being replaced by operations that specialize in a single production phase. The restructuring in the hog industry has given rise to many concerns: environmental risks and nuisance effects from large hog operations, social implications of a declining rural population, and food safety, nutrition, and animal welfare concern.
"Twenty Years of Competition Reshape the U.S. Food Marketing System". The past 20 years have brought significant changes in structure and competition in the U.S. food marketing system. Wal-Mart opened its first supercenter in 1988, offering food items as well as department store merchandise. Since then, the company has become the Nation’s leading retailer of grocery products. Warehouse clubs, dollar stores, drugstores, and natural and organic food stores have also made their mark in the food industry, each with a unique mix of products, services, and pricing strategies. Foreign-owned retailers and restaurants and other foodservice options also are sources of competition for U.S. consumers’ food dollars. Warehouse club stores, drugstores, and other nontraditional food stores have increased their share of food sales, leading traditional food stores to compete to retain their share of consumers’ food purchases. Advances in communication technology and increasingly diverse consumer preferences have led to more customized food marketing strategies. Food companies are touting their socially responsible corporate practices as a way to attract customers.
"Market Failures: When the Invisible Hand Gets Shaky". When markets fail, there may, indeed, be justification for some market regulation by government. Smith saw an obvious role for the public sector in national defense, provision of a system of justice and investment in public infrastructure, among others. More recently, the folly of unnecessary market regulation and the need to regulate markets that fail has been codified in a series of Presidential Executive Orders requiring Federal agencies that propose regulatory actions to back up those actions by stating explicitly what market failure(s) they address. The enormously complicated problem of deciding where and how all of society’s resources might best be used is usually solved by individuals following their own self-interest in markets largely free of government oversight. Markets fail when exchanges between willing buyers and sellers are impeded and efficiency is compromised. Overcoming such market failures is a role for government, but devising a solution that improves upon the status quo may not always be possible.
Productivity Growth Drives U.S. Agriculture. This data set provides estimates of output, input, and productivity growth for the U.S. farm sector over the period 1948-2004, and for individual States for the 1960-2004 period. Enhancements to the database now provide more input detail, with separate series for pesticide and fertilizer inputs, and for hired and self-employed labor. The data show the importance of productivity advances to agricultural output growth and provide a source for analyzing the determinants of productivity growth.
Forecast of Farm Income, Assets and Debt. Estimates of farm income, assets and debt were developed and presented at the Agricultural Outlook Forum. An estimate of value added to the U.S. economy by the production of farm goods and services was also estimated. Updated income and balance sheet forecasts were developed, and reflect the most recent information available on production, prices and quantities of crops, livestock, and products and other outputs and services generated from farms. The updates also reflect inputs consumed in production. Updates include disaggregated value-added/farm income account information to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) National Income Staff for their use in developing their estimates of Gross Domestic Product and National Income Accounts, and their estimates of Personal Income and Outlays, and Corporate profits.
Goal 3: Support Increased Economic Opportunities and Improved Quality of Life in Rural America
Key Outcome
ERS research and analytical activities are designed to enhance understanding by policymakers, regulators, program managers, and organizations that shape public debate of economic issues affecting rural development, including factors related to farm finances and investments in rural people, businesses and communities, and of economic issues related to the performance of all sizes of American farms.
Key Accomplishments
Indicators of Rural Economic Performance. The current brochure Rural America at a Glance, 2008 Edition highlights the indicators of social and economic conditions in rural areas. The focus of the recent work is employment, poverty, population change, and demographic characteristics of nonmetro areas. Employment growth slowed and unemployment rates rose in nonmetro areas in 2008, reflecting the effects of higher energy prices and tighter credit. While the overall number of rural Americans has increased since 2000, the majority of nonmetro counties lost population. Nonmetro areas have grown at less than half the rate of metro areas during this period. The brochure reflects enhancement in our measures of rural economic well-being.
Hired Farmworkers as Part of Agricultural Labor Force. ERS completed a profile of hired farmworkers that showed the unique characteristics of the hired farmworker labor market. Hired farmworkers make up a third of the total agricultural labor force and are critical to U.S. agricultural production, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as fruits and vegetables. The hired farmworker labor market includes a large population of relatively disadvantaged and often unauthorized workers. The 2008 profile is an update to the 2000 ERS analysis of the Current Population Survey with expanded sections on legal status, poverty, housing, and use of social services.
Expanding Farm Income Opportunities. The statistical profile of farm-based recreation showed that this activity could provide an important niche market for farmers. The study used data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey and the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment to analyze who operates farm-based recreation enterprises, such as hunting and fishing operations, horseback riding businesses, on-farm rodeos, and petting zoos. Farm-based recreation or agritourism provided income to about 52,000 U.S. farms in 2004.
Goal 4: Enhance Protection and Safety of the Nation’s Agriculture and Food Supply
Key Outcome
ERS research and analytical activities are designed to enhance understanding by policymakers and other decision makers of economic issues related to improving the efficiency, efficacy, and equity of public policies and programs aimed at protecting consumers from unsafe food.
Key Accomplishments
Program of Research on the Economics of Invasive Species Management (PREISM). ERS analysis through PREISM develops research to improve the economic basis for invasive species management decisions in cooperation with APHIS and other USDA Agencies. PREISM distributes funds through two mechanisms: (1) peer-reviewed, competitive extramural research, which distributed $6.7 million over the last six years (2003-2008); and (2) intramural research aimed at strengthening internal analytical capabilities to support for USDA invasive species program needs. PREISM research has funded 39 cooperative research or cooperative assistance agreements, and additional interagency agreements and competitive grants. Research with application to animal disease issues includes: Value of Animal Traceability Systems in Managing Contagious Animal Diseases, Economic Impacts of Foreign Animal Disease, Robust Inspection for Invasive Species with a Limited Budget; and Economics of Managing Infectious Wildlife Disease When Livestock are at Risk.
Economic Impacts of Foreign Animal Disease. As more is learned about the impacts of foreign animal-disease outbreaks, questions arise regarding the efficacy of existing animal disease-impact models for capturing the array of effects across many economic sectors and time. The Economic Impacts of Foreign Animal Disease presents a quarterly livestock and crop modeling framework in which epidemiological model results are integrated with an economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector to estimate the economic impacts of outbreaks of foreign-source livestock diseases. The framework can be applied to many livestock diseases, and this study uses the model to assess the results of a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Model results show large trade-related losses for beef, beef cattle, hogs, and pork, even though relatively few animals are destroyed.
Development of a Global Sanitary and Phytosanitary Regulation Database. ERS published a database, Phytosanitary Regulation of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables into the United States. This data product identifies which countries, under USDA phytosanitary rules, are eligible to export to the United States the fresh fruits and vegetables that are most important in the American diet, using data and information from USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the World Bank. Data on the absolute and relative importance of eligible countries in international fruit and vegetable production and trade, individually and in aggregate, are also included. Having access to information on countries that are currently eligible to export these products to the United States lays the foundation for better understanding trade patterns, and can underpin analyses of the market effects of changes in phytosanitary rules, such as the decision to allow imports of Mexican avocados into the United States. ERS is currently working with a consortium of multilateral agencies, including the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and FAO, to expand the country and commodity coverage of the database.
Food Safety and Imports: An Analysis of FDA Import Refusal Reports. This report examines U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) data on refusals of food offered for importation into the United States from 1998 to 2004. Although the data do not necessarily reflect the distribution of risk in foods, the study found that import refusals highlight food safety problems that appear to recur in trade and where the FDA has focused its import alerts, examinations (e.g., sampling), and other monitoring efforts. The data show some food industries and types of violations may be consistent sources of problems both over time and in comparison with previous studies of more limited data. The three food industry groups with the most violations were vegetables (20.6 percent of total violations), fishery and seafood (20.1 percent), and fruits (11.7 percent). Violations observed over the entire time period include sanitary issues in seafood and fruit products, pesticides in vegetables, and unregistered processes for canned food products in all three industries.
The Effects of Avian Influenza News on Consumer Purchasing Behavior: A Case Study of Italian Consumers' Retail Purchases. To better understand how information about potential health hazards influences food demand, this case study examines consumers’ responses to newspaper articles on avian influenza, informally referred to as bird flu. The focus here is on the response to bird flu information in Italy as news about highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) unfolded during the period of October 2004 through October 2006, beginning after reports of the first outbreaks in Southeast Asia, and extending beyond the point at which outbreaks were reported in Western Europe. Estimated poultry demand, as influenced by the volume of newspaper reports on bird flu, reveals the magnitude and duration of newspaper articles’ impacts on consumers’ food choices. Larger numbers of bird flu news reports led to larger reductions in poultry purchases. Most impacts were of limited duration, and all began to diminish within five weeks.
Do Food Labels Make a Difference? Consumers, food companies, third-party entities, and governments play a role in determining which attributes are described on the label. The interaction of these groups influences which information is labeled voluntarily, which is mandated, and which is not labeled at all. It shapes the way information is presented, and the accuracy and credibility of that information. The economics behind food labeling provides insight into the dynamics of voluntary food labeling and the types of market failures best addressed through mandatory labeling requirements. The report indicates competition drives food manufacturers to voluntarily label their products’ desirable attributes and to use third-party certifiers to bolster credibility. Mandatory food labeling is usually more successful at filling information gaps than at addressing externalities such as environmental or health spillovers associated with food production and consumption. Mandatory labeling may initially have a larger impact on manufacturers’ production decisions than on consumers’ food choices.
Economic Cost of Guillain-Barré Syndrome in the United States. This study estimated the annual economic cost of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in the United States in 2004, including the direct costs of medical care and the indirect costs due to lost productivity and premature death. The cost-of-illness method was used to determine the costs of medical care and lost productivity, and a modified value of a statistical life approach was used to determine the cost of premature deaths. Data were obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the Compressed Mortality File, a telephone survey of 180 adult patients with GBS, and other sources. The estimated annual cost of GBS was $1.7 billion including $0.2 billion (14%) in direct medical costs and $1.5 billion (86%) in indirect costs. Most of the medical costs were for community hospital admissions. Most of the indirect costs were due to premature deaths.
Economic Cost of Illness Due to Escherichia coli O157 Infections in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli O157 (O157 STEC) infections cause 73,000 illnesses annually in the United States, resulting in more than 2,000 hospitalizations and 60 deaths. In this study, the economic cost of illness due to O157 STEC infections transmitted by food or other means was estimated based on the CDC estimate of annual cases and newly available data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) of the CDC Emerging Infections Program. The annual cost of illness due to O157 STEC was $405 million (in 2003 dollars), including $370 million for premature deaths, $30 million for medical care, and $5 million in lost productivity. The average cost per case varied greatly by severity of illness, ranging from $26 for an individual who did not obtain medical care to $6.2 million for a patient who died from hemolytic uremic syndrome. The high cost of illness due to O157 STEC infections suggests that additional efforts to control this pathogen might be warranted.
Goal 5: Improve the Nation’s Nutrition and Health
Key Outcome
ERS research and analytical activities are designed to enhance understanding by policymakers, regulators, program managers, and organizations shaping public debate of economic issues relating to the nutrition and health of the U.S. population, including factors related to food choices, consumption patterns at and away from home, food prices, nutrition assistance programs, nutrition education, and food industry structure.
Key Accomplishments
Can Low-Income Americans Afford a Healthy Diet? Low-income households tend to eat less nutritious diets than other households. On average they do not meet Federal recommendations for consumption of fruit, vegetables, whole grains, and low-fat dairy products, and they consume fewer servings of these nutritious foods than other households. The difference between low-income households’ food choices and those of other households raises concerns about the affordability of healthy foods. Do low-income households have unhealthy diets because they cannot afford more healthy ones? This report finds low-income households that receive maximum benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program usually have the purchasing power necessary to afford healthy diets; others may not. Relative to other households, low-income households must allocate a higher share of both their income and time budgets to food if they wish to consume palatable, nutritious meals. For many American households, achieving an affordable healthy diet will require reducing their expenditures on less nutritious foods and moving nutrient-dense foods, such as fruit and vegetables, to the center of their plates and budgets.
Behavioral Economic Concepts To Encourage Healthy Eating in School Cafeterias: Experiments and Lessons From College Students. Changing small factors that influence consumer choice may lead to healthier eating within controlled settings, such as school cafeterias. This report describes a behavioral experiment in a college cafeteria to assess the effects of various payment options and menu selection methods on food choices. The results indicate that payment options, such as cash or debit cards, can significantly affect food choices. College students using a card that prepaid only for healthful foods made more nutritious choices than students using either cash or general debit cards. How and when individuals select their food can also influence food choices. College students who pre-selected their meals from a menu board made significantly different food choices than students who ordered their meals while viewing the foods in line.
The National School Lunch Program Background, Trends, and Issues. The National School Lunch Program (NSLP) is the Nation’s second largest food and nutrition assistance program. In 2006, it operated in over 101,000 public and nonprofit private schools and provided over 28 million low-cost or free lunches to children on a typical school day at a Federal cost of $8 billion for the year. The ERS report The National School Lunch Program Background, Trends, and Issues is intended as a briefing for policymakers and other stakeholders on the history and basic features of the program. It also addresses steps being taken to meet challenges facing administrators of the program, including tradeoffs between nutritional quality of foods served, costs, and participation, as well as between program access and program integrity.
Household Food Security in the United States. Food security for a household means that all household members have access, at all times, to enough food for an active, healthy life. To inform policymakers and the public about the extent to which U.S. households consistently have economic access to enough food, ERS publishes an annual statistical report on household food security in the United States. The report and its underlying data are widely used by government agencies, the media, and advocacy groups to monitor the extent of food insecurity in this country, progress toward national objectives, and performance of USDA’s nutrition assistance programs. The latest report, Household Food Security in the United States, 2007, based on data from the December 2007 Food Security Survey, provided the most recent statistics, at the time of publishing, on the food security of U.S. households, as well as on how much they spent for food and the extent to which food-insecure households participated in Federal and community nutrition assistance programs. Results show that 89 percent of American households were food secure throughout the entire year in 2007. The remaining 11 percent of households were food insecure at least some time during that year.
Food Stamps and Obesity: What Do We Know? Results from reviewed studies indicate that for most participants in the Food Stamp Program—children, non-elderly men, and the elderly—use of food stamp benefits does not result in an increase in either Body Mass Index (BMI) or the likelihood of being overweight or obese. However, for non-elderly women, who account for 28 percent of the food stamp caseload, some evidence suggests that participation in the Food Stamp Program may increase BMI and the probability of obesity. Different results for age and sex subgroups remain unexplained. Further, because food stamp benefits are issued to households, not individuals, mixed results across age and sex subgroups make it difficult to target policy alternatives to address potential weight gain among some participants while not affecting others in the household.
Balancing Nutrition, Participation, and Cost in the National School Lunch Program. The National School Lunch Program (NSLP) provides federally subsidized meals to more than 30 million children each school day. Recently, reported high rates of obesity and overweight among children have focused attention on the nutritional quality of school lunches. However, this attention has raised another fundamental question: Can schools meet the program’s nutrition goals while covering costs, especially in times of rising food prices?
Schools face the dual constraints of meeting nutrition requirements and covering costs. The free-meal subsidy covers most of the per meal cost, but the price paid by most paying students covers only half of the per meal cost. School food service managers say that in order to appeal to students and raise revenues, they need to offer less nutritious a la carte foods and vending snacks.
Food Stamp Program Certification Costs and Errors, 1989-2005: Final Report. Preventing and detecting certification errors in the Food Stamp Program (FSP) is a major policy concern. In 2005 the cost of overpayments was $1.29 billion, about 4.5 percent of the $28.6 billion in benefits issued. This report examines the State-level relationships between FSP certification error rates and certification expenditures, program policies, caseload characteristics, and economic conditions. The results show that, during the study period of 1989-2005, a ten percent increase in certification “effort”—about $35 per participating household—would reduce an index of certification errors by 2 percent (0.3 percentage points out of a mean of 15.1 percent). The effect of certification effort was significantly smaller between 1997 and 2002, when States were implementing welfare reform. Key simplification policies authorized by the 2002 Farm Bill were estimated to jointly reduce the error index by 4.4 percentage points.
Effect of State Food Stamp and TANF Policies on Food Stamp Program Participation. The effectiveness of the Food Stamp Program (FSP) depends on the extent to which it reaches those who are entitled to benefits. In the mid- to late 1990s, participation fell sharply. In recent years, it rebounded somewhat, reaching 65.1 percent in 2005. Changes in participation patterns can be attributed partly to economic fluctuations, but they were also shaped by the rapidly changing State policy environment. This study combines data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996-2003, with data on State-level food stamp, welfare, minimum wage, and Earned Income Tax Credit policy to investigate the effects of policy on food stamp participation. The findings show strong evidence that some FSP policy reforms made after 1999 (such as more lenient vehicle-exemption policies, longer recertification periods, and expanded categorical eligibility) increased food stamp participation. The use of biometric technology, such as fingerprinting, however, lowered participation. The study shows less consistent evidence that more lenient immigrant eligibility rules, simplified reporting, Electronic Benefit Transfers, or outreach spending raised food stamp participation.
Impact of 2002-03 Farm Bill Restorations on Food Stamp Use by Legal Immigrants. This study used 1999-2004 Current Population Survey data in conjunction with the Urban Institute’s Transfer Income Model (TRIM3) to quantify the impact of the 2002 Farm Bill’s eligibility restorations. About half the estimated impact came from increases in newly eligible families, while the rest came from increases in eligible family members within already-eligible families (usually within families with citizen children). By 2004 the restorations had extended eligibility to roughly one million legal immigrants and 148,000 additional families. The extension in eligibility reached around two-thirds of those made ineligible by the 1996 welfare reform law rules and not covered by the 1998 restorations. The estimated participation gain over the period was 780,000 individuals and 139,000 legal immigrant families. The restorations took place in an era of large increases in food stamp caseloads overall; even so, the share of families containing legal immigrants increased substantially.
Tracking Trends in U.S. Food Consumption. ERS maintains the U.S. per capita food consumption data system. This system is an important statistical indicator that tracks food and nutrient availability from 1909. The data facilitate policymaking and regulatory decisions about farm assistance programs, nutrition education, public health programs, and regulation of vitamin and mineral fortification and food labeling. The system is regularly updated as new data becomes available. ERS researchers publish reports on U.S. food consumption patterns using the database on a regular basis.
Consumer Data and Information Program (CDIP). In 2008 ERS continued development of a consumer and data infrastructure needed for analyses of food policy issues. CDIP efforts focused on improving ERS’s Food Availability Data System, obtaining information on Americans’ time use on eating and preparing food using the Bureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey, gathering information on consumer knowledge about diets and health as well as economic content using NHANES, and understanding the characteristics of proprietary datasets. ERS initiated an effort to make the data collected through NHNAES more readily available to researchers, and launched a new effort to design the content of the 2009-10 module for NHANES. To support price analysis and consumer food choice behavior, ERS continued the acquisition and use of Nielsen’s Homescan data on packaged and random weight food purchases.
Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System. The ERS food availability (per capita) data system includes three distinct but related data series on food consumption. The data serve as popular proxies for actual consumption. Food availability data are now available through 2006 at the national level. Also included are data on nutrient availability in the food supply and data on loss-adjusted food availability. This latter data series uses dietary recommendations from the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans and its supporting guidance document MyPyramid Plan. ERS annually calculates the amounts of several hundred foods available for human consumption in the United States. The data are available at the national level only (State, city, or regional data, for example, are not available). This data series provides estimates, for example, of the pounds of beef available for domestic consumption per capita per year. The data are available on an annual basis. Most data extend back to 1909.
Goal 6: Protect and Enhance the Nation’s Natural Resource Base and Environment
Key Outcome
ERS research and analytical activities are designed to enhance understanding by policymakers, regulators, program managers, and those shaping public debate of economic issues related to developing Federal farm, natural resource, and rural policies and programs that protect and maintain the environment while improving agricultural competitiveness and economic growth.
Key Accomplishments
Privately Funded Conservation: What Can Farmers Sell? Farmers produce a variety of goods and services for which markets generally do not exist, including improved water quality, carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, open space, and water supplies. A recent ERS report on the use of markets to increase private investment in environmental stewardship identified the environmental services different types of farmers could provide, and identified impediments to market formation. Case studies examined in the report included water quality trading, carbon markets, wetland restoration, and recreation on Conservation Reserve Program lands.
"Green Payments" in Agriculture. A recent ERS report addresses the potential advantages and disadvantages of linking commodity and conservation programs into a single policy tool. The research examined the distribution of income support and environmental gains from various scenarios combining the income support objective of existing commodity programs and environmental objectives of existing USDA conservation programs. Because commodity and conservation payments tend to go to different producers on different types of land, scenario outcomes varied. Conservation-based payments yielded larger environmental gain and substantial income support, although the distribution of income support across farms differed markedly from that of current commodity programs.
Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART) Assessments
ERS’ entire economic research and analysis program was assessed with the Office of Management and Budget PART for the FY 2007 budget. The overall program rating was “effective.” PART findings concluded that ERS ensures its research quality through internal and external peer reviews, and customer satisfaction with ERS products has been at or above target levels. The PART assessment recommended that (1) ERS continue to track the measures that have only baseline or partial data to ensure that performance is improving or remaining on target, and (2) ERS determine the impact of research by surveying users on the extent to which they find ERS products useful in decisionmaking.
ERS is undertaking activities to track its performance measures and to continue surveying customers about the usefulness of ERS products in decision making. ERS has completed all follow-up actions associated with OMB's PART recommendation to survey customers about the usefulness of ERS products. ERS continues to assess customer use of and satisfaction with ERS products using the Policy Official Satisfaction Survey. Customer satisfaction ratings continue to run well above target levels (95 percent versus a target level of 82 percent).
ERS has also completed all follow-up actions associated with OMB's PART recommendation to continue to monitor ERS performance measures that have only baseline or partial data. This recommendation applies to the following performance measures: Policy Official Satisfaction Survey, Portfolio Review Score, and American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) Customer Satisfaction Rating.
- Policy Official Satisfaction Survey: ERS continues to assess customer use of and satisfaction with ERS products using the Policy Official Satisfaction Survey. Data for this annual performance measure show that ERS customer satisfaction ratings continue to run well above target levels (95 percent actual versus a target of 82 percent).
- Portfolio Review Score: ERS continues detailed planning for the annual program review. The Resource and Rural Economics Program at ERS was reviewed by an external expert panel at the end of FY 2007. The panel review for the program area reviewed resulted in a performance rating of “excellent.” One result of the program review is that annual data will be generated for one of ERS's long-term performance measures “Portfolio Review Score -- Qualitative assessment by external experts of the relevance, quality, and performance of ERS research portfolios to enable better informed decisions on food and agricultural policy issues.”
- ACSI Customer Satisfaction Rating: As part of a regular cycle of customer satisfaction surveys based on the ACSI, ERS surveyed its customers in 2005. Customer satisfaction levels were found to exceed government averages and were above the ERS target level. Another survey was conducted in 2008, with little change in average scores from 2004. Future surveys of overall customer satisfaction are planned for 2011.
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