EuroChoices
Agricultural Economics Society,
Hampshire, UK
and
European Association
of Agricultural Economists,
The Hague, Netherlands
“Can Russia be Competitive
in Agriculture?”
Pages 18-23
by William M. Liefert, Stefan R.
Osborne, Olga Liefert, and Michael A. Trueblood
At the beginning of Russia’s economic reform in the early 1990s,
Western observers predicted that effective reform could transform Russia
from being a big importer of grain into a major exporter. During the 1990s,
this prediction did not materialize, since in most years Russia was either
a small grain exporter or importer. Russia, however, did become a large
importer of beef, pork, and poultry. In 2001 and 2002, Russia had substantial
grain exports of 7 and 16 million metric tons, though favorable weather
clearly played a key role in this development. This article examines whether
Russia can be competitive in world agricultural markets and how increased
competitiveness would affect the country’s agricultural trade.
Russia is the top foreign market for U.S. poultry exports. The analysis
finds that Russia currently is uncompetitive in the production of meat,
and so may continue for the next decade as a big importer of poultry (mainly
from the United States) and of beef and pork (mainly from the European
Union). Russia is more competitive in grain than in meat. If agricultural
reform continues at the relatively slow pace of the 1990s, Russia is expected
to be a moderate-sized grain exporter of about 4 to 5 million tons in
most years. With more accelerated reform, however, and a fast pace of
productivity increases, Russian’s annual grain exports could go
as high as 15 to 20 million tons. Such volumes would be large enough to
reduce world grain prices.
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