Agricultural Outlook November 2001

Jeanne McLaughlin, executive editor

Agricultural Outlook No. (286) November 2001

About this magazine

AO is the main source of USDA's farm and food price forecasts. AO emphasizes the short-term outlook for all major areas of the agricultural economy. It also presents long-term analyses of such issues as U.S. agricultural policy, trade forecasts and export-market development, food safety, the environment, and farm financial institutions. Each issue includes 25 pages of data on individual commodities, the general economy, U.S. farm trade, farm income, production expenses, input use, prices received and paid by farmers, per capita food consumption, and related issues. AO is published 10 times per year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Materials may be reprinted without permission. Contents have been approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Release of summary for the December 2001 issue: November 20, 2001. Release of complete text-only version: November 21.

In this report ...

Articles are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

Contents, 40 kb

In This Issue, 38 kb

Briefs

• U.S. Poultry Exports Maintain Star Billing--In 2001, broiler stocks tightened as production slowed and exports rose, resulting in increased prices for most broiler products. Broiler parts have seen the strongest price growth. Turkey production over the first 8 months of 2001 was 2.4 percent higher than for the same period in 2000, and exports have increased this year. David Harvey (202) 694-5177, 80 kb.

• Smaller 2001 U.S. Pear Crop to Boost Prices--An overall slump in pear production this year, coinciding with lower supplies of domestically grown apples, points to higher grower prices for fresh-market pears in 2001/02. Total U.S. pear production for 2001 is forecast down 5 percent from 2000 to 1.8 billion pounds. Agnes Perez (202) 694-5255, 36 kb.

• Taiwan's Trade Barriers to Recede with WTO Accession in Sight--Taiwan, under recently negotiated provisions of its pending membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), has committed to market access terms with implications for agricultural trade, particularly for the U.S. Taiwan agreed to concessions and commitments equivalent to those made in the WTO Agreement on Agriculture by developed-country members. Taiwan will reduce agricultural tariffs and will lift its ban on imports of rice and a range of other items. Sophia Huang (202) 694-5255, 103 kb.

Commodity Spotlight

• World Rice Glut Keeps Lid on U.S. Prices--With record supplies at home and with extremely low prices in the global market, the 2001/02 U.S. season-average farm price for rice is projected to be the lowest in 15 years. Nonetheless, U.S. rice exports are projected to increase just 3 percent in 2001/02, as large exportable supplies in major exporting countries and low international prices limit U.S. export gains. Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292, 188 kb.

World Agriculture & Trade

• Water Supply in the APEC Region: Scarcity or Abundance?--Less than 1 percent of the earth's water is fresh, and access to fresh water is critical to the food system. In the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation region, projected population growth in its cities, particularly in China and developing economies, will put huge stress on the region's water supplies. Unless water control facilities are expanded and/or efficiencies are achieved, there is potential for water shortages in Korea, Chinese Taipei, Japan, China, Mexico, and the U.S. William T. Coyle (202) 694-5216, 970 kb.

Research & Technology

• Farms, the Internet, & E-Commerce: Adoption & Implications--Internet use by U.S. farmers has grown rapidly, as advances in technology make the Internet more accessible. Use of computers on farms has grown from 38 percent of all farms to 55 percent since 1997, while Internet use has grown from 13 percent of all farms to 43 percent. In 2000, 24 percent of farms used the Internet as a management tool in their farming operations, including $665 million in online buying and selling. Jeff Hopkins (202) 694-5584, 152 kb.

Resources & Environment

• Organophosphate Insecticides Being Scrutinized, Restricted--The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is reviewing the risks of organophosphate (OP) pesticides, which are widely used in agriculture. Most regulatory actions resulting from the initial assessment have affected OP use on fruits and vegetables. Preliminary results of EPA's cumulative assessment, which examines the risks of OPs as a group, are to be released December 1 and may result in additional use restrictions. Craig Osteen (202) 694-5547, 170 kb.

• Higher Cropland Values from Farm Program Payments: Who Gains?--Government commodity program payments are estimated to have added nearly $62 billion to U.S. farmland values, as farmland value depends largely on expected future earnings, including program payments. For many farm operators who own land, farmland value increases are favorable. But for operators who pay more to buy land, appreciated values add to the fixed cost of production, largely related to higher financing costs and/or real estate taxes. Operators who lease farmland may pay higher rents that reflect their receipt of some of the government payments. Charles Barnard (202) 694-5602, 1,436 kb.

Announcing...

Agricultural Outlook Forum 2002, 20 kb

Emerging changes in international agriculture-new reports on China, Brazil, and Argentina, 52 kb

Statistical Indicators, 174 kb

Entire issue, 2,804 kb

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Updated date: November 2001