Agricultural Outlook November 2002

Nora Brooks, Economics Editor

Agricultural Outlook No. (296) November 2002

About this magazine

Agricultural Outlook will be published through December 2002 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Contents have been approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. AO presents in-depth analyses of food- and agriculture-related topics and short-term outlook articles on commodity markets and food prices. Each issue includes 30 pages of data on individual commodities, farm income, the general economy, agricultural trade, and related issues. Materials may be reprinted without permission.

Notice to readers: Agricultural Outlook will be replaced by a new ERS magazine to begin publishing in February 2003. The new magazine will cover the full range of ERS's research program. It will be available in print and also as an e-zine that will be updated with new material between publication dates. AO tables will continue to be published on the ERS website.

In this report ...

Articles are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

Contents, 452 kb

In This Issue, 462 kb

Briefs

• Broilers Headed for Record Production & Consumption—The U.S. broiler industry has seen continuous yearly gains in production since 1975, with 2002 likely to set another record. U.S. broiler consumption this year should also set a record. Broiler exports, however, are forecast down in 2002. Turkey consumption has not kept pace with production, and with exports down, stocks have grown. David Harvey (202) 694-5177, 475 kb.

• Export Share of U.S. Ag Production Is a Stable 21 Percent—The export share of total U.S. agricultural production was 21 percent in 2001, equal to 2000 and the average since 1996. For crops alone, export share has also been stable, averaging 24 percent from 1996 to 2001, and the export share of livestock products has averaged 6 percent. While export share of crops in recent years has been lower than in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, for livestock it is higher now than in the 1980s. Alberto Jerardo (202) 694-5266, 514 kb.

Commodity Spotlight

• U.S. Rice Market Facing Record Supplies, Low Prices—Rice prices in the U.S. are at their lowest in more than 15 years, the result of weak global prices and a second consecutive year of record supplies at home. Despite a bearish price outlook and expectations of a huge carryover, U.S. rice producers cut plantings just 3 percent in 2002. U.S. rice exports in 2002/03 are projected strong, due in part to expanding global rice trade. Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292, 479 kb.

• Price Recovery Elusive for Cotton—Commodity prices around the world have been relatively low since the late 1990s, and 2002 cotton prices remain about 30 percent below the 1990-94 average. While prices of some major field crops have recovered from recent lows, cotton and rice have been left behind. China's role in world cotton and rice consumption is greater than for the other crops, and China appears likely to continue the cotton stock reductions initiated several years ago. Stephen MacDonald (202) 694-5305, 503 kb.

• Sweet Potatoes: Getting to the Root of Demand—For many Americans, sweet potatoes have a strong holiday connection, but this root crop remains a popular vegetable year-round in the American South and in Asia, Africa, and Brazil. Production in 2001 was the third highest since 1965. Over the 1999-2001 period, U.S. sweet potato growers produced an average of 13.5 million hundredweight from 90,500 harvested acres, and farm cash receipts averaged $214 million. Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253, 540 kb.

• Will the Farm Act Get Pulses Racing?—Dry peas, lentils, and small chickpeas—pulse crops—are relatively minor in acreage, supply, and use in the U.S. compared with corn, soybeans, and wheat. However, pulses could be poised for expansion due to their inclusion in the 2002 Farm Act. New marketing loan benefits, combined with agronomic advantages and a growing number of processors, may increase the attractiveness of planting pulses. Gregory K. Price (202) 694-5315, 537 kb.

World Agriculture & Trade

• EU Enlargement: The End Game Begins—Ten Central and East European (CEE) countries are engaged in intense negotiations with the European Union (EU) for eventual membership. Accession could bring significant changes in CEE production and trade. Impacts on world trade are likely to be small, but enlargement could alter U.S. exports to the region. U.S. share of the large poultry market could decline as EU sanitary requirements are adopted. Rising CEE incomes resulting from EU membership could create opportunities for U.S. exports of other high-value products. Nancy Cochrane (202) 694-5143, 536 kb.

• China's Increasing Presence in Global Trade of Vegetables & Fruits—China raised its profile in the global market for vegetables and fruits in the 1990s, increasing its export value of those products by 33 percent between 1992-94 and 1998-2000, to $3.1 billion. With improvements in production, marketing, and transportation technologies, China strengthened its competitive position to eighth in the world vegetable and fruit export market. Though a relatively low-volume importer, China expanded its import value of vegetables and fruits more than fourfold to reach $413 million. Sophia Wu Huang (202) 694-5257, 550 kb.

Resources & Environment

• U.S. Organic Farming: A Decade of Expansion—American farmland under organic management has grown steadily for the last decade, with acreage for major crops more than doubling between 1992 and 1997, and again between 1997 and 2001. Certified organic pasture (including ranchland) also doubled between 1997 and 2001. USDA's national organic standards, which took effect in October 2002, incorporate an ecological approach to farming and are expected to generate further interest in organic products. Catherine Greene (202) 694-5541, 562 kb.

Research & Technology

• Precision Agriculture Adoption Continues to Grow—Precision agriculture (PA) incorporates modern information technologies into the management of agricultural inputs and production practices. PA technologies fall into two broad categories: spatial and/or temporal sensing (e.g., yield monitors), and application control, also known as variable-rate technology (VRT). Corn and soybean farmers have been the most rapid adopters of PA sensing technologies. Fertilization of corn and soybeans has been the most widespread use of VRT. Stan Daberkow (202) 694-5535, 569 kb.

Statistical Indicators, 677 kb.

Agricultural Outlook Forum: Program Preview, 496 kb.

ERS to Launch New Magazine, 448 kb.

Entire issue, 2,151 kb.

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Updated date: November 2002