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Data on the value of U.S. agricultural exports by State
of production are not part of the U.S. export information
collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Consequently,
the Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates State agricultural
exports using the Customs District-level export data compiled
by the U.S. Census Bureau and the State-level agricultural
production data supplied by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS). Using these approximations, a State that
is the largest producer of an agricultural commodity will
also account for the largest share of U.S. exports of that
commodity. Countries of destination for each State's exports
cannot be determined.
U.S. agricultural commodity exports are often produced
in inland States. From the farm, a commodity is sold to
a local elevator, which in turn may sell it to a larger
elevator located at a major transportation hub, which then
moves the commodity to a port. As the commodity passes
through several States before being exported, the State-of-origin
often is lost or the product commingled with similar product
from other States. Frequently, the State from which the
commodity began its export journey, not necessarily the
State in which the commodity was produced, is reported
by the exporter. To more accurately reflect the situation
for inland agricultural producing States, ERS calculates
U.S. State agricultural exports based on a State's share
of production of the exported commodity.
The underlying crop and livestock production and slaughter
estimates by State are publicly available from NASS on
their Data and Statistics page. The State's share of production
of the commodity is simply applied to the U.S. export figure
for the commodity to derive export value.
NASS does not provide production statistics for processed
agricultural products such as pasta. For these products,
supplemental data from the 2007 Census of Agriculture
and the Department of Commerce's 2002 Economic Census,
Subject Series, Manufacturing Product Summary have been
used to refine State export estimates.
Estimates of U.S. State exports also are made by other
organizations—U.S. Census Bureau, International Trade
Administration, etc. Their estimates are based primarily
on Customs data reported at the port and compiled by the
Census Bureau. These estimates are based on origin of movement,
not production location. Consequently, compared with ERS'
estimates, these estimates for agricultural commodities
tend to inflate the relative exports of port States and
undercount those of inland States, where farm commodities
often originate. For a complete discussion of the origin
of movement series, see Census' State Export Data Series.
Comparing ERS and Census Bureau Estimates
State-level estimates for key commodity groups using the
Census Bureau’s Origin of Movement (OM) methodology
and the ERS production share (PS) methodology have been
reviewed. See Comparing
the Estimates for a
series of charts comparing the differences resulting from
the two methodologies for 2006. The key difference between
the estimates is that OM estimates are developed with business/manufacturing
as the focus, while the PS estimates are developed with
agricultural production as the focus. For agricultural
commodities that are traditionally exported in a less-processed
form, the PS estimates will lead to a larger value for
States where production occurs. For commodities that are
traditionally exported in a more highly-processed form,
the OM estimates will lead to a larger value in those States
where manufacturing or shipping occurs.
The differences are especially large for soybeans and
feed grains. In the OM series, Louisiana and Washington
account for 77 percent of soybean export value. Neither
of these States is in the top 10 States in the PS series.
For the PS series, the top six states account for 79 percent
of soybean export value; while Iowa, the leading PS state,
and Indiana are not in the top 10 OM States. For feed grains,
Louisiana accounts for 56 percent of the OM export value
while not appearing in the top 10 PS States. Iowa, Illinois,
and Nebraska account for 54 percent of PS feed grain export
value.
In contrast, both series list California, Washington,
and Florida as the top three states for fruit and nut exports,
with these States accounting for the majority of the estimated
values of fruit and nut exports. Together, California,
Washington, and Florida account for 81 percent of the estimated
value of fruit and nut exports using the OM methodology
and for 87 percent of the estimated value of fruit and
nut exports using the PS methodology. While there is not
necessarily a lot of processing for these commodities,
they are climatically suited to these areas and substantial
amounts are shipped fresh.
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