|
The world oilseed market consists of many closely substitutable
commodities, such as soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed. Exporting
countries can also process oilseeds domestically and ship the resulting protein
meal and vegetable oils to foreign buyers. Foreign import demand depends on the
deficit between countries' domestic oilseed output and consumption. Divergent
requirements for protein meal and vegetable oil, as well as limits on domestic
processing capacity, determine the ratio of oilseeds to oilseed products that
countries will import. The volume and source of foreign imports depends on seasonal
availability and relative prices, credit and delivery terms, local preferences,
and quality. Country policies, such as tariffs and domestic
subsidies, also can affect prices and the availability of competing products.
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) monthly report Oilseeds:
World Markets and Trade presents forecasts and historical data by country
for the major oilseeds and their products, covering production, domestic consumption,
and international trade.
U.S. Exports and Imports
The United States is the world's largest producer and
exporter of soybeans. Oilseed and oilseed product exports,
particularly soybeans, represent a significant source
of demand for U.S. producers and make a large net contribution
to the U.S. agricultural trade balance. Among all U.S.
agricultural products, only grains and feeds outrank the
oilseed sector in total export value and net exports.
In the early 2000s, the value of U.S. oilseed and product
exports averaged over $9 billion, nearly half the farm-level
value of production. Outlook
for U.S. Agricultural Trade provides the latest information
on U.S. farm exports, by commodity and region, as well
as the trade outlook. Current U.S.
export sales of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean
oil are tracked by destination on a weekly basis.
Main export destinations for U.S. oilseeds, oilseed meal, and vegetable
oil include the European Union (EU), Japan, Mexico, China, and Taiwan.
Other important markets include South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand.
The Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela also import significant
quantities of U.S. oilseed meals. U.S. vegetable oil exports are
more dispersed and are heavily influenced by concessional food aid
to developing nations through such programs as P.L.
480.
U.S. imports of oilseeds and oilseed products averaged over $2
billion in the early 2000s, and are mainly rapeseed and rapeseed products (e.g.,
canola oil) from Canada, olive oil from Western Europe, and tropical oils from
the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. FAS' U.S.
Trade Internet System can be used to search for statistics on U.S. exports
and imports of oilseeds and oilseed products by country or region. Despite
substantial growth in oilseed and oilseed product output in the past 25 years
and recent gains in export volume, the U.S. share of global exports has steadily
diminished. In the mid- to late 1970s, the United States dominated world trade
in unprocessed oilseeds, with a global market share of more than 70 percent. Recently,
this figure has fallen below 50 percent. From a smaller percentage base, the United
States has seen its share of oilseed meal and vegetable oil exports decline even
more sharply, particularly before 1990.
Why the decline in the U.S. share of global exports? A key development
has been the phenomenal growth of foreign soybean output and exports, particularly
by Brazil and Argentina. Foreign soybean output now exceeds that of the United
States, and Brazil and Argentina currently share approximately half of the soybean
export market, up from less than 15 percent before 1980. With increased foreign
production, and more rapid expansion of trade in soy products than whole beans,
Brazil and Argentina have each surpassed the United States in soy meal and soy
oil exports. Another factor is the recent expansion of U.S. meat exports, which
stimulates domestic meal use rather than contributing to exports of soybeans or
soybean meal. Brazilian and Argentine soybean and meal exports are projected to
continue capturing market share from the United States in the next decade.
Top of page
Major Foreign Soybean Exporters and Importers
Since the early 1970s, soybean production in South America
has expanded rapidly. Brazil now trails only the United
States in soybean production. Brazilian
soybean growing regions used to be concentrated in
the south, relatively near the major ports. In recent
years, soybeans have expanded into the vast farmland of
the center-west states, as infrastructure improvements
have cut internal transportation costs. Brazil's vast
reserves of farmland could permit a continued significant
expansion in soybean area. Argentina's
soybean growing regions and crushers are located close
to port facilities, and the relatively small domestic
market makes it the world's largest exporter of soybean
meal and oil. A lower export tax on processed commodities
than on unprocessed commodities also favors the export
of soybean oil and meal from Argentina. Recent increases
in international competitiveness
by Argentine and Brazilian grain and oilseed producers
could foreshadow continued gains on the strength of abundant
undeveloped agricultural resources, more stable economies,
and expanding global trade liberalization.
China is the world's fourth-largest producer of soybeans.
The major Chinese
soybean growing regions are in the northeast part
of China. Yet, rapid growth of China's economy has spurred
food consumption, turning the country into the world's
leading soybean importer. Changes in China's
agricultural and trade policies have greatly influenced
world oilseed markets. China's
WTO accession will further reduce import tariffs and
quantitative restrictions to its oilseed market.
The major Indian
soybean growing region is in the central state of
Madhya Pradesh. Indian production of soybeans and other
traditionally grown oilseeds—such as peanuts, rapeseed,
and cottonseed—has increased in the last decade,
although yields are among the world's poorest. India imposes
prohibitive barriers on oilseed imports, so its domestic
crushing is limited to the oilseeds that can be produced
within the country. Domestically produced oilseeds are
highly valued for the vegetable oil, and India
is now among the world's largest vegetable oil importers.
India is a smaller (but growing) consumer of soybean meal,
and exports its surplus to other Asian countries.
The European Union is self-sufficient in vegetable oil
production, but its protein deficit still makes it the
world's largest importer of soybean meal and second-largest
importer of soybeans. Since the 1960s, EU imports of soybeans
swelled because of rapid growth in livestock production
and duty-free concessions signed in world trade agreements.
But in the 1970s and 1980s, soybean consumption slowed
as EU agricultural policies subsidized a large expansion
in domestically produced rapeseed and sunflowerseed, eroding
the market for oilseed imports. The U.S. government challenged
these subsidies and, in 1992, the EU committed to a number
of reforms of its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), including
area limits on the planting of oilseeds. Incremental reductions
in oilseed subsidies and lower prices stemming from further
CAP reforms have caught up to EU farmers, who recently
scaled back oilseeds planting. Direct payments to oilseed
producers have recently been reduced and now equal the
per-hectare payments received by grains producers.
In coming years, EU enlargement and CAP reform are projected
to swell internal grain supplies and allow EU grain prices
to fall even more. Despite relatively low protein-meal
prices, the comparatively larger reduction in the cost
of feeding grains to livestock should curb EU soybean
meal consumption and imports. Historically, high import
tariffs on cereals have boosted EU consumption of soybean
meal, which has been favored by duty-free access for soybeans.
Over the last decade, lower grain prices and several animal
disease epidemics resulted in significant increases
in the feeding of grains and oilseed meals and a reduction
in the feeding of nongrain feed ingredients, such as meat
and bone meal.
Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),
Mexico immediately reduced its soybean tariff to 10 percent,
which was phased out completely by 2003. With reforms
in Mexico's domestic crop support programs, imports have
virtually displaced domestic soybean production, with
nearly all imports coming from the United States. U.S.
soybean exports to Mexico have more than doubled since
1993. Strong income growth among Mexican consumers has
boosted consumption of meat and vegetable oils and increased
demand for soybeans. Improvements in Mexico's rail links
at the border have also expedited soybean trade.
Top of page
Trade Policies
Compared with trade in other agricultural commodities,
trade in whole oilseeds, particularly soybeans, is relatively
unrestricted by tariffs and other border measures. But
oilseed meals, and particularly vegetable oils, typically
have higher tariffs. Applied tariffs on soybean oil, for
example, average about 20 percent for the world's top
importers of the commodity, compared with rates generally
at or below 10 percent for soybeans. Agricultural
tariff schedules for World Trade Organization (WTO) member
countries report the current maximum permissible duties.
In addition to tariffs, both exporters and importers
have used other trade-distorting policies, such as differential
export taxes in Argentina and in Brazil (prior to 1996),
production subsidies such as those in the EU, and phytosanitary
barriers in India. These policies create incentives to
boost domestic oilseed production or encourage exports
of processed products, which tend to displace U.S. oilseed
exports and shift the composition of U.S. exports towards
whole oilseeds and away from higher value-added oilseed
meals and vegetable oils.
The WTO launched another round of negotiations on agricultural
trade in 2001 that are still ongoing. Among other issues,
negotiations are focusing on issues previously addressed
by the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA),
such as limits on tariff and nontariff barriers to trade,
export subsidies, and the type and level of spending by
countries on domestic agricultural support programs. These
provisions limit member countries' use of trade-distorting
policies. U.S. objectives
for future negotiations include further reducing tariffs
and improving market access, eliminating the use of export
subsidies, and further limiting trade-distorting domestic
programs. Analyses of U.S.
tariff rate quotas for peanuts have also shown their
significant influence on U.S. peanut imports, particularly
prior to the elimination of the peanut
marketing quota system in 2002.
Top of page
|
