Market Analysis
Trade
Commodity Policy
Market Analysis
For information on current and previous baseline projections
for rice, see the market outlook
chapter.
Rice
Yearbook (annual in November) provides in-depth information and analysis
of U.S. and international rice markets that include a
recap of the previous market year and the outlook for
the coming year. The domestic section focuses on U.S.
production, export markets, and prices. The global section
looks at major importers and exporters and describes factors driving
international trade.
Agricultural Commodity Price Spikes in the 1970s and 1990s: Valuable Lessons for Today (March 2008) examines the recent runup in commodity prices in light of similar occurrences in 1971-74 and 1994-96. Although similar to those earlier price runups, rising demand for grains and oilseeds for biofuels adds a new dimension of complexity.
Fluctuating Food Commodity Prices: A Complex Issue With No Easy Answers (November 2008) explores the many factors that contributed to the rapid escalation of food commodity prices through mid-2008. For the full report, see Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices (July 2008).
Characteristics and
Production Costs of U.S. Rice Farms (March 2004) reports that regional
differences in production practices, farm characteristics,
and growing conditions were major influences on production
costs incurred by U.S. rice producers in 2000. Three-quarters
of rice production was concentrated on large and very
large farms, categories that included nearly two-thirds
of all rice farms.
Developing
Supply and Utilization Tables for the U.S. Rice Market (November 2000) explains how USDA prepares monthly supply and use tables
for the U.S. rice sector. It describes data sources, start-of-
year forecasts, and yearend estimates.
Characteristics
of U.S. Rice Farming (November 2000) uses census data to describe the structure of rice farming
in the United States.
Trade
Factors
Behind the Rise in Global Rice Prices in 2008 (May
2009) examines factors underlying the high prices seen
during November 2007 to April 2008. The price increase
was not due to crop failure or a particularly tight
global rice supply situation. Instead, trade restrictions
by major suppliers, panic buying by several large importers,
a weak U.S. dollar, and record oil prices were the
immediate cause of the rise in rice prices.
Indian Wheat and Rice
Sector Policies and the Implications of Reform (May 2007) suggests
that future developments in India's food grain sector
will be shaped by how policies adapt to the sector's
new economic environment. Some changes, such as reducing
price supports and the scope of government food grain
operations, would likely cut government costs, benefit
consumers, allow a larger private sector role in the domestic
market, and increase reliance on trade.
Commercialization of Food
Consumption in Rural China (July 2005) finds that rural households
rely on self-produced commodities, especially grains and
vegetables, for a large share of the food they consume.
However, as incomes rise and markets develop, rural households
are purchasing more of their food from markets.
China's New Farm Subsidies (February 2005) describes new policies that China implemented in 2004
and assesses their impact on Chinese rural income and
grain production. China introduced direct subsidies for
farmers, began to phase out its centuries-old agricultural
tax, and implemented other policies benefitting farmers.
China's
Japonica Rice Market: Growth and Competitiveness (November 2002) briefly describes the evolution of China's japonica rice
market over the last two decades, including the impact
of changes on China's competitiveness in key Asian import
markets. While China has traditionally exported long grain
(or indica) rice varieties, in recent years, it has exported
substantial amounts of japonica rice as well.
Taiwan's
Rice Import Market to Open with WTO Accession (November 2001) reviews Taiwan's policies towards its most important
crop. WTO accession in 2002 has introduced a minimum access
import quota of 8 percent, and Taiwan's government is
preparing to enlarge the paddy area that farmers leave
fallow in order to withdraw an equivalent amount of production
from the market.
The U.S. Rice
Export Market (November 2000) analyzes the markets for different types of U.S.-grown
rice. Trends within each market are addressed, as well
as the U.S. position in global rice trade.
Rice
Tariffication in Japan: What Does It Mean for Trade? (April 1999) examines how Japan used tariff-rate quotas in 1999 and
2000 to slow growth in rice imports. While Japan now allows
imports above the minimum amounts required under the Uruguay
Round Agreement on Agriculture, tariffs on rice imports
above minimum access are prohibitively high—in 1999,
450 percent of the price of imported rice. U.S. rice exports
to Japan likely increased at a slower rate than under
fixed quantitative limits.
Commodity Policy
2008 Farm Bill Side-By-Side (August
2008) presents a title-by-title summary of key provisions
of the 2008 Act in a side-by-side comparison with previous
legislation. The side-by-side includes links to related
ERS publications and to analyses of previous farm acts.
New features include a user's guide, an A-Z list of major
provisions, and a search function.
Valuing Counter-Cyclical
Payments: Implications for Producer Risk Management and
Program Administration (February 2007) illustrates an improved method
for estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting
for the variability in market price forecast errors. Forecasters
and producers can use the model to calculate the probability
of having to repay advanced counter-cyclical payments.
Rice Backgrounder (December 2006) reports that U.S. rice farming is a high-cost, large-scale
operation. While domestic disappearance continues to increase,
the outlook for rice farm incomes is tempered by higher
production costs and continued strong competition in many
international markets from lower cost Asian exporters.
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