Deaths Exceed Births in Over 800 Nonmetro
Counties
Between 2000 and 2005, population patterns in nonmetro
counties reverted to those of the 1980s. Population
in an estimated 1,027 out of 2,051 nonmetro counties
(about half) declined in population, compared with the
decline in 593 counties between 1990 and 2000. This is
a reversion to patterns of the 1980s. For the most part,
the newly declining counties are found in and among
the large agriculture-dependent zones of the Great Plains
and Corn Belt that lost people in the 1990s (see
map).
But counties with declining populations also include
Appalachian mining areas
and a number of Southern counties that have relied heavily
on manufacturing. Population decreased overall in both farming
and mining
county types (in the ERS
county typology system) during
2000-05.
Heaviest nonmetro population declines
were in five Midwestern States—Kansas, Iowa,
Illinois, North Dakota, and Nebraska,
ranging from 28,400 in Kansas to 10,300
in Nebraska (see table).
Mississippi and Louisiana in the South were not in
this group because, although they, too, were high in
outmigration, they had sufficient excess births over
deaths to nearly offset the loss from migration.
For over a generation now, deaths have outnumbered births
in many U.S. counties, contributing to overall
population loss. This pattern, known as natural decrease,
first emerged in farming-dependent areas in the 1960s
that had been losing population as labor needs in agriculture
declined. Young adults in particular moved away at such
high rates for so many years that the proportion of
people of childbearing age was considerably reduced.
Simultaneously, the average number of children born
per rural family after the end of the Baby Boom in the
mid-1960s fell to a level much more like that of urban
families and to no more than slightly above that needed
for generational replacement.
In affected counties, the combined result of these changes
was a substantial rise in the average age of the population
to the point where deaths exceeded births. In general,
populations with a median age of 40 or older (or even
in the high 30s) cannot produce more births than deaths.
We now have hundreds of such counties. Natural decrease
is most common in the Great Plains and Corn Belt where
the fewest job alternatives to farm work have been generated.
In extreme cases, some counties now have twice as many
deaths as births.
Decreases in childbearing and agricultural
labor requirements were as great in many parts of the
South and East as in the Midwestern Farm Belt. However,
natural decrease was generally avoided in the South
and East, at least until more recently, for two reasons:
- New work developed in manufacturing or services to
offset the job losses in farming.
- More cities were accessible for rural people to commute
to for employment without moving.
Some Natural-Decrease Counties Are Retirement Destinations
Where Population is Growing
All told, 839 nonmetro counties had more deaths than
births between 2000 and 2005, up from 610 between 1990
and 1999. These natural-decrease counties accounted
for 41 percent of all nonmetro counties.
In a small number of these areas, natural decrease coincided
with net inmigration for retirement to attractive rural
and small locales. Despite the high average age of residents
and the numerous deaths of elderly people, these county
populations are typically still growing, often
substantially, because
the continued influx of newcomers more than offsets
the excess births over deaths. These counties are
most likely to be in locations with mountains, lakes,
or other appealing natural terrain rather than
in the agricultural heartland.
But Most Natural Decrease Stems From Prolonged Outmigration
and Population Loss
More common is the situation of the 498 nonmetro counties,
nearly a fourth of all nonmetro counties, that were
declining in population between 2000 and 2005 both from
natural decrease and net outmigration. The most common
of this type of county is the thinly settled,
entirely rural farming and ranching county with fewer
than 10,000 people. But a number of much more populous
counties experienced combined
natural decrease and net outmigration due to prolonged
industrial and/or mining decline.
Some examples are the counties containing the cities
of Quincy and Macomb, IL; Vincennes, IN; Clarksburg,
WV; Escanaba, MI; New Castle and Warren, PA.
As a group, nonmetro counties with both net outmigration
and natural decrease had a population of 6 million in
2005, and averaged 12,050 people each, fewer than half
the nonmetro average. Stabilizing population levels
will be particularly difficult for these areas unless
they attract substantial additional employment. They
did not acquire older age structures and low birth
rates overnight, and developments that lead to rapid
infusions of adults of childbearing age or higher fertility
seem likely to be few. Since 2000, Maine, Pennsylvania,
West Virginia, and Virginia have all had statewide natural
decrease in their nonmetro population.
For more information, see data on nonmetro
natural-decrease counties, 2000-05  .
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