A new briefing room on the ERS website, "Race
and Ethnicity in Rural America," describes the demography,
geographic dispersion, household structure, educational attainment,
labor force activity, and economic well-being of rural Asians,
Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans, and Whites. Policy implications
and related sites are also included. William
Kandel
Understanding
Rural Population Loss and Growth
In the Winter
2002 issue of Rural America, ERS's recently retired
magazine of rural economics, ERS researchers take a new look
at rural population change based on 2000 census data. The
lead article shows that the counties most likely to lose people
in the 1990s had low population densities and few amenities
and were distant from metro centers—all characteristics
that discourage development. A companion article discusses
330 recreation counties, many with high amenities, that have
grown faster than most county types, largely from inmigration.
Most can be classified according to their principal attraction,
such as casinos, reservoir lakes, or ski resorts. Other articles
examine regional rural development efforts, such as the Delta
Regional Authority created in 2000, and review the most recent
data on nonmetro migration, rural poverty, and rural earnings.
Carolyn Rogers
Future
Food Expenditures
In Food
Expenditures by U.S. Households: Looking Ahead to 2020
(AER-821), ERS researchers estimate that projected demographic
shifts combined with an assumed increase in inflation-adjusted
incomes of 1 percent per year in the United States will increase
per capita food spending by 7.1 percent and total food spending
by 26.3 percent by 2020. The study uses recent Bureau of Census
data, incorporating demographic factors such as age, race,
income, region of residence, diet-health knowledge, and household
size and composition. Noel
Blisard
Future
Food Consumption
As the American population becomes older and more racially
and ethnically diverse, the volumes and types of foods preferred
can be expected to shift. Food
and Agricultural Commodity Consumption in the United States:
Looking Ahead to 2020 (AER-820) examines the volume of
individual foods eaten by Americans between 1994 and 1998,
and projects what those volumes will be by the year 2020,
taking into account population and demographic shifts as well
as trends in economics and immigration. The researchers used
a food-commodity translation database to convert food consumption
to commodity consumption for 25 food groups and 22 commodity
groups. Biing-Hwan Lin
U.S. Organic
Farming Small, But Growing
U.S. farmland managed under organic systems expanded rapidly
over the last decade as farmers strove to meet consumer demand
in both local and national markets. USDA implemented national
standards on organic production and processing in October
2002, and the new standards are expected to facilitate further
growth in organic farming. While less than 3 million acres
of cropland use organic practices, an increasing number of
U.S. farmers are adopting these systems. U.S.
Organic Farming in 2000-2001: Adoption of Certified Systems
(AIB-780) updates USDA estimates of land farmed with organic
practices during 1997 with estimates for 2000 and 2001, and
provides new estimates on the number of certified organic
operations in each State. Catherine
Greene
Demand
for Farm Credit Expands, But Farm Lenders Remain Cautious
Commercial banks, the Farm Credit System, the Farm Service
Agency (FSA), and life insurance companies provide credit
to the farm sector and keep a cautious eye on farm debt trends,
interest rates, and farm debt repayment capacity. According
to the recently released Agricultural
Income and Finance (AIS-80), all major lender groups,
including FSA, report low levels of delinquencies and loan
problems. The stability of their farm loan portfolios is benefiting
from large government payments, off-farm income, and an enhanced
crop and revenue insurance program. Total farm business debt
increased 5.1 percent in 2002. The expected 3.9-percent increase
in 2003 will be the 11th consecutive annual increase. Despite
price and weather problems facing some commodities, the supply
of farm credit remains adequate, and lenders appear confident
about most of their farm customers. Jerome
Stam
China’s
Water Policies: Effects on Production and Trade
ERS is embarking on a collaborative project with China's
Ministry of Water Resources and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics, among others, to examine how China's
water policies might affect agricultural production potential
and trade. This collaboration builds on the recently released
ERS publication China's
Agricultural Water Policy Reforms: Increasing Investment,
Resolving Conflicts, and Revising Incentives (AIB-782).
The central component of the collaboration will be to assist
the Ministry of Water Resources to build a hydrological-economic
model of the Yellow River Basin to predict the effects of
water policies on crop production. This effort will serve
to increase our understanding of how water allocation policy
reform will affect China's ability to maintain self-sufficiency
in grains. Bryan Lohmar
Commodity
Markets and Trade
ERS Outlook reports provide timely analysis of major commodity
markets, farm income and finance, and trade, including special
reports on hot topics. All reports are available electronically
and can be found at www.ers.usda.gov/publications/outlook,
along with a calendar of future releases. Joy
Harwood
Competing
in the 21st Century
The presentations given at USDA's annual Outlook Forum in
February can be accessed by clicking
here. The forum was attended by over 1,300 industry, academic,
and government analysts. ERS developed, or helped develop,
nine of the Forum's 31 sessions, which ranged in content from
"Competition in the Asian Marketplace" to "What's
Happening in the Retail Food Sector?"
